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summary
- US Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net inflows for seven consecutive trading days.
- Bitcoin fell to $64,760 after touching a monthly high near $66,700 two days ago.
- CryptoQuant data shows spot demand weakens even as ETF buying continues.
- The four-hour RSI fell to 41 from overbought territory earlier this month.
Bitcoin traded near $64,700 on July 23, reversing part of the rally that had taken it to $66,700 just two days earlier. The pullback caused the price to fall by 2.2% over 24 hours, According to CoinMarketCapWhile the market value of assets reached $1.29 trillion. What makes this decline worth a closer look is what didn’t happen with it: US ETFs kept buying. Shows data tracked by Santiment Seven straight trading days of net inflows since July 14, totaling about $981 million, even as the chart below begins to fluctuate.
The last time Bitcoin ETFs put together this long was in early October 2025, right before the price soared to a record high of $126,000. This comparison is not guaranteed to be replicated, and the current font size is much smaller than the flows seen at the time, but it shows what continued demand for ETFs has historically preceded. Santiment’s own commentary on the data points to the same tension occurring now: Conditions look supportive enough for a return towards $70K, however a huge one-day surprise influx would be a signal to watch, since this type of rally tends to signal short-term tops rather than the start of a new rally.
Two boxes carried almost the entire line
Farside investors collapse Of the eleven U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, they fill in where the streak came from and where it almost broke. BlackRock’s IBIT had almost every positive day of its own, Fidelity’s FBTC ran alongside it more often than not, and Grayscale’s GBTC bled money in almost every session it ever recorded an inflow.
Two things stand out in this stretch. July 13 produced the single worst day since the streak began, with both IBIT and FBTC losing money at the same time, matching almost exactly with the biggest drop on the price chart that week, when Bitcoin briefly gave up the $64,000 level before recovering it within days. And GBTC never posted a positive day across the entire window, even when every other fund was pulling in new money.
Why BlackRock keeps winning and Grayscale keeps losing
The mechanisms behind this dichotomy come down to cost. GBTC still charges a 1.50% annual fee, a remnant of its days as the only spot exposure available before the ETFs convert in 2024, while IBIT charges 0.25% and new entrants like Morgan Stanley’s MSBT charge less than 0.14%. Authorized participants create and redeem shares of ETFs based on where demand lies, and when a cheaper fund can offer the same exposure to Bitcoin for a fraction of the cost, funds migrate toward it over time. This rotation is showing up as an outflow on the GBTC line even on days when the total ETF class holds hundreds of millions, and speaks more about competition for fees within the ETF shell than sentiment toward Bitcoin itself.
A cool Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates fading momentum, not a reversal yet
Zooming in on price action helps explain why ETF inflows do not translate into a clean breakout. Bitcoin rose from a low near $58,700 on July 1 to a high of $66,700 by July 21, and the 50-period EMA, now at $65,016, has been tracking that rally all the way. The price remaining above this average during the rally reflects buyers’ control in the short term; The $64,760 close just below it is now a mild warning sign, not a reversal signal per se, but an indication that momentum has slowed enough to allow the average to catch up.
The Relative Strength Index tells a similar story. It peaked near 70 twice this month, first on July 5 and again near July 20, both levels that traders generally treat as a sign that buying has moved too far, too quickly. It has since fallen to 41, which is below the neutral 50 mark without yet reaching the 30 threshold that typically indicates oversold conditions. In plain terms, the buying spree that led to the rally has faded, but the sellers are not firmly in control either.
A weaker signal falls under the ETF headlines
Founder of Cryptoquant Ki Young Ju posted a chart on July 23 Which further complicates the flow story. Its data separates spot demand from futures demand on a 30-day basis, and shows that spot buying is losing steam while futures demand, although still net positive, is well below where it was during the recovery three months ago. This distinction is important because the flows of ETF creation and futures placement can mask what happens in the underlying spot market, where actual currencies are traded. A rally supported primarily by ETFs and futures positions, without spot demand growth alongside it, tends to have less staying power than one where all three move together.
Spot demand for Bitcoin is weakening. Demand for futures remains positive, but much lower than it was during the recovery three months ago. pic.twitter.com/aWisc8VQ5k
– Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) July 23, 2026
The $62,000 area becomes the dividing line in the sand
If the series of flows continues and spot demand starts to recover in tandem, a retest of $66,700 and a push towards $70,000 becomes the most likely path, echoing the setup that Santiment has been indicating since October. If spot demand continues to decline while ETF flows are the only thing supporting the bar, the most fragile scenario will take over, and with the price already below the 50 EMA, the next real test will be the $62,000 to $63,000 area where the market consolidated in early July, with the $58,700 low from July 1 as a level below that. The only signal worth watching closely in either direction is one huge ETF day. Santiment’s own note on the data treats this as a warning rather than good news, since rallies of this size tend to occur immediately before short-term tops rather than confirming a breakout.
