Key takeaways
- Bitcoin fell from 76K, a monthly high.
- Technical indicators point to further correction in the near term.
Bitcoin fell below $74,000 after retreating from a monthly high earlier this week. The cryptocurrency rose from $70,000 at the beginning of the week to reach $76,000 on Tuesday, before falling to its current level.
Mixed signals for the crypto market
The US Navy has confirmed a complete blockade of Iranian ports, exacerbating concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing prices up from three-week lows. However, President Trump has indicated that the conflict may be coming to an end, tempering a further rise in oil prices and keeping hopes of de-escalation alive.
In addition, Treasury yields were on a downward trend, supported by lower-than-expected Producer Price Index data for March, which rose 0.5% month-on-month, below expectations of 1.2%. This easing of inflation fears benefits Bitcoin, as lower yields indicate improved liquidity and a lower opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like cryptocurrencies.
The US stock market was also resilient, with the Nasdaq index recording its 10th straight session, rising nearly 10% in April. Cryptocurrency markets have reflected this strength, with Bitcoin up nearly 8.5% so far this month.
These parallel moves suggest that Bitcoin is increasingly being traded as a macroeconomic-sensitive asset, in response to broader market sentiment rather than purely cryptocurrency-specific factors.
Despite current market conditions, institutional demand continues to support Bitcoin price action. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $411 million on Tuesday, despite a $291 million outflow the day before. This brings total net flows for April to $741.9 million.
The growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin has been further highlighted by Goldman Sachs’ filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a premium Bitcoin income ETF, signaling a deeper commitment to cryptocurrencies than traditional finance.
BTC may retest lower support levels
The 4-hour BTC/USD chart is bearish and active, as Bitcoin has fallen more than 1% in the past 24 hours.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading within an ascending channel that has been in place since early February. BTC is testing a key resistance level around $76K, which coincides with the March high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October high near $126K.
If the bulls regain control and Bitcoin starts a sustained breakout above $76K, it could target $80K, followed by $85K and the 200-day SMA at $88K.
On the downside, Bitcoin has initial support near $71K, with stronger support at $69.6K, which is the 50-day simple moving average. A move below $65,000 would indicate a lower decline, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
