Key takeaways
- Bitcoin is trading below $64,000 after rising more than 6% last week.
- US-based Bitcoin ETFs recorded $526.64 million in net outflows, marking the eighth straight week of withdrawals.
- Renewed geopolitical concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz are reducing demand for risky assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading slightly lower on Monday after rising more than 6% last week, as buyers struggle to push the cryptocurrency above the key resistance level of $64,000.
Although last week’s rebound improved short-term sentiment, ongoing institutional selling and renewed geopolitical uncertainty continues to limit upside momentum.
For now, Bitcoin remains stuck between improving technical conditions and cautious macroeconomic sentiment.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Extend Historic Outflow Line
Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains under pressure. according to Coinglass dataUS exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $526.64 million in net outflows during the previous week.
The withdrawals mark the eighth straight week of net redemptions, extending the longest streak of outflows since Bitcoin ETFs began trading.
If institutional investors continue to reduce exposure this week, Bitcoin could face renewed selling pressure despite last week’s rebound.
Global geopolitical uncertainty remains another hurdle for Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency rose last week after easing tensions between the United States and Iran briefly improved investor sentiment.
However, optimism has faded as concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz have resurfaced.
Reports that Iran may impose new service fees on ships passing through the strategically important shipping route have renewed uncertainty, while the United States and many of its Gulf allies continue to oppose such measures.
Ongoing geopolitical risks have kept investors cautious, limiting demand for higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Bulls Defend Long-Term Support
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin continues to trade above a critical long-term support level.
Last week’s rally allowed BTC to reclaim the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $62,867 after bouncing off the uptrend line that has supported prices since early 2023.
Staying above this level keeps the broader recovery intact. If buyers maintain control above the 200-week simple moving average, Bitcoin could extend its advance towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $65,520, which was measured from the August 2024 low to the October 2025 record high.
On the daily time frame, Bitcoin continues to trade below its major moving averages. The cryptocurrency remains below its 50-day moving average at $65,744, its 100-day moving average at $69,455, and its 200-day moving average at $75,471, leaving the broader trend tilted to the downside despite the recent gains.
Immediate resistance is located around $64,004. A successful break above this level could allow Bitcoin to challenge the 50-day EMA, with additional upside targets at the 15-day EMA, the 200-day EMA, and eventually the key resistance area near $84,410.
While momentum has improved, a daily RSI near 49 and a positive MACD crossover indicate that buyers are gradually regaining ground, although there is no confirmation of a sustainable uptrend.
The 200-week simple moving average at $62,867 remains the most important near-term support level.
A sustained move below that area would weaken the current recovery and expose the long-term uptrend line near $58,000. If selling pressure intensifies further, Bitcoin could return to its yearly low of $57,800.
Bitcoin has recovered significantly from its recent lows, but the rally is facing resistance just below $64,000.
Ongoing ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty, and general technical resistance continue to limit upside potential.
As long as BTC holds above the 200-week simple moving average, the recovery remains intact. However, buyers will need to reclaim $64,004 and then $65,744 to build momentum for a broader move higher.
