Key takeaways
- Oversold technical conditions may limit the pace of decline, but the broader market structure remains bearish.
- The structure will remain bearish unless BTC can reclaim the $64,000 area and build momentum back above the key moving averages.
BTC Extends Losses Ahead of Key US Inflation Data Bitcoin (BTC) continued its decline on Wednesday, trading below $61,500, as renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing institutional selling kept risk appetite low.
Investors are also preparing for the release of US CPI data for May, which could significantly impact expectations on Federal Reserve policy.
Renewed tensions in the Middle East keep risk assets under pressure
Geopolitical concerns increased after the United States carried out what it described as self-defense strikes against Iran following the downing of an American Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded by saying it had targeted an air base in Jordan hosting US forces, in addition to sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, and warned of further escalation if US measures continued.
Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming US inflation data. Economists expect the May CPI report to show another increase in consumer prices, partly due to higher energy costs linked to the Middle East crisis.
If inflation comes hotter than expected, that could bolster expectations that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance and keep interest rates high for longer.
Higher borrowing costs tend to reduce liquidity and make yielding assets more attractive compared to riskier assets, which could add further pressure on Bitcoin.
Institutional demand remains weak. According to CoinGlass, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs It recorded net outflows of $77.44 million on Tuesday, following outflows of $91.37 million earlier in the week.
These withdrawals extend a broader trend of sustained weekly inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting that large investors remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks.
Bitcoin Technical Forecast: Bears Maintain Control
The 4-hour chart of BTC/USD is bearish and active as Bitcoin maintains a clear bearish structure in the near term.
The price remains well below all three major moving averages, while the previous uptrend line near $73,004 has turned into resistance, reinforcing the view that the medium-term uptrend has been broken.
An RSI near 38 indicates oversold conditions that could slow the decline, but it does not yet indicate a confirmed reversal.
The MACD remains in negative territory, although downside momentum appears to be moderate, increasing the risk of consolidation rather than an immediate recovery.
If the bulls regain control, immediate resistance will emerge at the $64,004 level, with the $72,037 area also emerging as a strong supply zone.
No significant support levels have been identified directly below the current price in this setup, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to further declines if selling pressure continues.
