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- Bitcoin spent five months below key on-chain cost levels, an area Glassnode described as an area of deep value
- Long-term holders now account for nearly half of the total losses realized across the network.
- ETF outflows have slowed significantly, although institutional trading activity is still a fraction of last year’s peak.
- Analysts’ targets for the down cycle range from a deep collapse scenario to the view that the bottom is already behind us.
Bitcoin may be nearing the end of its current decline, but a recovery has yet to be confirmed, according to a Glassnode report titled “Bottom construction is in progress“Published on Wednesday. The cross-chain analytics firm points to a market that has been trading below the two most closely watched cost levels for about five months, while long-term holders continue to sell coins at a loss on a scale not seen since the depths of the bear market in 2022. The price, which is currently around $62,000 after rebounding from $58,300 to $64,400 over the past week, is well under the real market average at $76,600. The short-term cost-to-holder cost basis is $72,200. Until buyers reclaim those levels, Glassnode treats every upside as questionable.
Why Long-Term Holders Are Leading the Biggest Loss Wave Since December 2022
The most striking shift in the data concerns investors who usually sell last. Glassnode found that long-term holders are responsible for the lion’s share of market losses, a share that has risen from 15% in early February to 43%. Most of these coins were bought near their October 2025 peak of $126,000, held through months of decline, and are now being sold in a weakened state by owners who are simply tired of waiting.
The company’s entity-adjusted long-term realized loss index peaked at about $280 million in daily losses, its highest reading since December 2022, marking the second major selling wave of this downturn. Unlike the first wave, this one has not yet shown meaningful signs of easing. In 2022, the final surrender of the old currencies preceded the actual price decline by several weeks, but the decline only took shape when the sell-off had exhausted itself. The current wave is still continuing.
There is a counterweight forming underneath it. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish wrote in early July that long-term holders had returned to net accumulation across portfolio pools, including entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, and that more BTC were now in loss than in profit for the first time in this draw, roughly 10.83 million BTC underwater versus 9.22 million in gain. The same group is simultaneously selling old coins submerged in water and buying new coins at current prices. The width changes from hand to hand, and this is exactly what the process of making a bottom on the string looks like.
| metric | Current reading | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Real market means | $76,600 | The price has settled below it since early February |
| Short-term carrier cost basis | $72,200 | The first resistance to any attempt at recovery |
| LTH’s share of realized losses | 43% | Up from 15% in early February |
| Peak daily LTH losses achieved | $280 million | Highest since December 2022 |
| Realized price (downside sign) | ~$53,000 | Historic floor area if the sale is intense |
| Options put/call OI ratio | 0.56 | Lowest level for 2026 |
Wall Street withdrew $4.5 billion in June, then the bleeding slowed
Bitcoin ETFs It lost $4.5 billion in June, its worst month since its January 2024 launchwith BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounting for $3.55 billion in outflows, according to data compiled by The Block.
Since then the pace of withdrawal has declined sharply. Glassnode reported that average daily outflows peaked at $193 million in early June and have slowed to about $88.9 million per day, although outflows still exceed inflows. Daily trading volume for ETFs remained between $650 million and $950 million, well below the daily peak of $4.4 billion recorded in October 2025. Nearly 80% of institutional trading activity has evaporated. This decline looks like capitulation on the chart and like indifference on the trading desk. The outflow data trend improved at the beginning of the month, though: SoSoValue recorded renewed inflows starting July 2, the first sustained positive prints since the outflow trend began in May.
Options traders have stopped short selling but are still paying for protection
Options data pulls in two directions at the moment. Bitcoin’s call/call options ratio has fallen to 0.56, the lowest level of 2026, meaning traders are holding more call options than put options. Active demand for short exposure has largely dried up. At the same time, options traders continue to pay higher prices to protect against the downside, and Bitcoin is trading about 6% below the options market’s maximum pain level of $66,000.
The call/sell ratio calculates how positions are split between bearish and bullish contracts, while the skew shows what traders are actually paying for each side. A low ratio with expensive sell-offs describes a market where almost no one is anymore betting on a collapse, yet no one trusts the floor enough to drop their insurance. This combination tends to appear late in bear markets, after aggressive short trades have generated profits and before real risk appetite returns.
Where analysts put the cycle low
The spread of expectations among institutional researchers remains unusually wide:
- Stifel Financial – Target $38,000. Chief equity strategist Barry Bannister directed A Trendline through every major Bitcoin crash bottom since 2010 It extended it to the current session, arguing that tighter Fed policy and the high correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq justify a further decline.
- K33 Research – The floor has already reached $60,000. Research head Vitel Lundy says the 2025 bull market has been less aggressive than previous cycles, making a collapse of 80% or more structurally unlikely, with a base consolidation case between $60,000 and $75,000.
- Willy Wu and other cycle analysts are timing their bottom at around October 2026, which would correspond to the roughly 12-month duration of the bear markets in 2018 and 2022 measured from the October 2025 peak.
The three signals that would confirm the bottom
Glassnode’s own framework specifies what confirmation requires, and none of the three conditions are fully met. Long-term holder loss realization should calm significantly from the current daily peak of $280 million. ETF flows should remain positive for more than a few sessions, not just narrow their losses. The price needs to recover $72,200 first, then $76,600, on convincing volume rather than weak weekend liquidity. Until then, the company warns that Bitcoin may still slide toward the price achieved near $53,000 if selling pressure returns.
One seasonal detail works in the market’s favor over the coming weeks. QCP analysts point out that July has historically been one of the strongest months for Bitcoin, with gains averaging around 7.5%, and the combination of early July returns of ETF inflows and a decline in spot selling gives this pattern something tangible to build on. The next test reaches $66,000, as positioning focuses on options. How the price behaves around this level until the end of July will show whether this bounce is supported by buyers or just an absence of sellers.
