When will the Bitcoin bear market end? This may be the biggest question investors are asking this cycle.
The difficult part is that on-chain metrics and historical trends are currently pointing in different directions. From a franchise perspective, the end of the down cycle could be closer than many expect.
One analyst highlighted that long-term Bitcoin holders have almost stopped taking profits, while selling pressure has eased for the first time since September 2025. This is in line with CryptoQuant data showing 9,030 BTC leaving Binance, indicating improved immediate demand.
Together, seller exhaustion and renewed demand suggest that Bitcoin may be approaching a potential cycle bottom.
To add more context, the Coinbase Premium Bitcoin Index shows another interesting trend.
Notably, the negative Coinbase Premium value indicates that US institutional investors are still net sellers, as Coinbase has seen sustained selling pressure for 900 consecutive hours, the highest level of pessimism in the past two years.
However, the indicator has reached extreme levels, which CryptoQuant notes have historically served as a bullish signal for Bitcoin.
In short, seller fatigue now shows up across multiple metrics. This is in line with Bitcoin (BTC) Four weeks of upside, reinforcing the possibility that the down cycle may be behind us.
With BTC consolidating around $65k, the current setup could pave the way for a move towards $70k as we head into August.
However, “timing” is still the missing piece.
The Bitcoin bottom debate is heating up
Timing has always been more important than patterns, according to some analysts.
However, it is historical Data It shows that these patterns are not random. Bitcoin has historically completed a 5-wave correction during major bear markets, a structure seen in 2015, 2018, and 2022. This cycle has followed a similar pattern, indicating the possibility of a potential bottom forming.
But the main concern is timing. Previous bear markets lasted 365 days, while this cycle bottomed out roughly 100 days ago.
Recent grayscale data adds to this caution, with analysts suggesting that if the traditional four-year cycle repeats, the BTC bear market could continue into September or October.
Against this backdrop, some analysts believe that Bitcoin’s recent uptrend may just be a dead bounce.
It is worth noting that the gap between improving on-chain signals and the timing of the cycle has left even analysts like Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst, unsure about the Bitcoin bottom hypothesis. Response Simply put, “we’ll see.”
This uncertainty keeps the debate about a bear market bottom open.
Thus, if historical timing occurs (a view that many market participants still follow), Bitcoin could see another decline before the down cycle ends, supporting Grayscale’s late Q3/early Q4 timeline for a potential bottom.
Final summary
- Bitcoin selling pressure is fading, indicating that the bottom may be closer.
- History shows that Bitcoin bear markets usually take longer to end, meaning another decline is still possible.
