Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that Bitcoin may still be at risk of recording a new low cycle later this year, pointing to historical patterns from previous bear markets.
In a recent YouTube update, Quinn Checks Time gaps between major lows in past sessions, indicating that the current market may not be out of danger yet.
“In 2014, Bitcoin hit a low in April, and the next low wasn’t until October,” Cowen says, noting that the gap between those lows was about 174 days.
He adds that in 2018, the market experienced similar behavior, with approximately 143 days between major lows, followed by another period of approximately 147 days before the crucial bottom was formed.
Cowen stresses that even the act of breaking previous lows often takes months.
“In terms of how long it took to get rid of the decline, it took about half a year,” he explains, referring to previous cycles.
Looking at more recent data, he points out that in 2022, it took roughly “140 days” to break the June low. In comparison, the current cycle may still be early in that timeline.
“How long has it been since the February low? We’re currently on day 88.”
Based on this historical framework, Cowen warns that further declines remain a realistic possibility.
“Who knows what’s going to happen in 3 months? Who knows? I mean, there’s definitely a chance that Bitcoin will find a new low later this year, just like it did in previous bear markets.”
He also warns investors not to misinterpret extended rallies as confirmation of a new bull cycle.
“You can have rallies that last for months and pull people back in, and make them afraid to get back in, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s any different from other bear markets we’ve seen.”
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