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- Bitcoin fell 17% from just under $74,000 on Monday to an intraday low of $61,556 on Thursday, resulting in a total cryptocurrency liquidations of $4.47 billion during the period.
- Data from derivatives and options markets show weak demand and increased downside protection bets.
- Analysts see the possibility of another decline to the $50,000 level, with the possibility of reaching a bottom within three to six months.
Bitcoin It continued to decline on Thursday, exacerbating losses across the entire cryptocurrency market with no clear signs of a bottom.
The leading cryptocurrency fell nearly 17% over four days, from around $74,000 on Monday to an intraday low Thursday of $61,556, according to CoinGecko data.
In less than four days, total Cryptocurrency market liquidations reached $4.47 billionwhere bullish bets contributed $3.82 billion – nearly 93% of all positions cleared. At press time, Bitcoin is still underwater, trading at around $63,680, down 5.1% on the day.
Derivatives and options data provide a new layer of insight into Bitcoin’s recent decline, apart from ongoing ETF outflows, worsening geopolitical conditions and their second-order effects. Decryption previously I mentioned.
Coinbase’s premium has been negative since late April and has widened since May 26, according to Queen Glass Data. The metric, which measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase versus Binance, has remained negative through much of 2026, with only occasional positive spikes in March and April. The persistent negative premium indicates weak institutional demand in the US.
Bitcoin’s 30-day delta skew collapsed from -4.2 to -9.4, according to It will be a joke Data suggests that options investors continue to pay premiums for downside protection through bearish bets or call options.
Since June, Bitcoin’s open interest has fallen from 282,000 BTC to 265,000 BTC, according to Filo Data, such as the delta of cumulative spot and permanent volume, which is the difference between buying and selling pressure in the market, has declined. This combination indicates a build-up of new short positions as Bitcoin continues to decline.
On a brighter note, the spot order book depth of 5% and 10% shows that investors have continued to buy on dips despite the sell-off.
How low can Bitcoin fall?
The main driver of the sell-off remains geopolitical risks, said Ilya Utyshchenko, chief analyst at CEX.IO. Decryption. He said: “The renewed escalation between the United States and Iran has led to increased risk aversion in the markets, and even put the opportunity for a possible interest rate hike on the table.” “US stocks continue to rise to all-time highs, drawing speculative capital towards AI stocks and away from cryptocurrencies.”
Utyshchenko noted that shortly before the decline accelerated, Bitcoin’s short-term holder’s cost basis fell below the average real price — a crossover that has historically occurred during the intermediate stages of previous bear markets. “The average recent buyer is now way below the low compared to the long-term valuation benchmark,” he explained. “Historically, this creates a self-reinforcing cycle where losses lead to additional selling pressure.”
Several on-chain models suggest that Bitcoin’s price could still move below $60,000, according to Otychenko. He also noted that long-term holder supply hit a new all-time high this week — a trend that often occurs during bear markets. “If historical patterns continue, a bottom could appear within the next three to six months.”
If Bitcoin loses $60,000, Otychenko has identified the achieved price near $54,000 as the next major reference point. “Given the low volatility in this cycle, the final bottom could form much closer to this level compared to previous cycles.”
Bitcoin is going through a natural “tired phase” of the cycle, said Robin Singh, CEO of Koinly Decryption. With Bitcoin hovering around annual lows of just over $60,000, Singh said he wouldn’t be surprised to see another drop to $50,000. “This may be where the market finds a ‘true bottom’, shakes off weak hands, and begins to build the foundation for a stronger move higher later in the year.”
In the prediction market Countlessowned by DecryptionParent company of Dastan, optimism has dropped, as users are now tagging 70% chance On the next major step for Bitcoin, which will raise its price to $55,000 instead of $84,000.
Standard Chartered’s contrasting view
Jeffrey Kendrick, head of cryptocurrency research at Standard Chartered, described the Bitcoin sell-off as a potential buying opportunity in a research note shared with Decryption. While Kendrick acknowledged the strategy 32 Bitcoin Sell CatalystThe company is expected to buy back multiples of what it sold.
“I suspect post-sale buying will be more aggressive – I think either 10x (+320 BTC) or 100x (+3200 BTC),” he said. “If I’m right… I’d take that as a tentative sign that the bottom has been made.”
Kendrick also noted that ETF holdings have remained “structurally strong,” falling from only 682,000 BTC to 674,000 BTC since February — much less than he feared. “When we look back at the end of 2026, with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k, we will say this was the buy zone we all wanted.”
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