Americans traded up to $34 billion in offshore prediction markets: study

The Americans were responsible for up to $34 billion in trading volumes in the offshore forecasting market during the 12-month period ending April 2026, According to a new study Commissioned by the Prediction Markets Alliance, an industry group that includes regulated prediction market operators such as Calci, crypto.comAnd Coinbase.

The study conducted by Rutgers professor W Member of the CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee Harry Crane compared data from offshore platforms — or those that don’t allow U.S. users and are not regulated by the CFTC — with platforms that have exclusively U.S. users, or exclusively non-U.S. users.

“As a share of all U.S. forecasting market activity (including regulated and offshore platforms), we estimate that between 12.5 and 31.5% of the volume of the U.S. forecasting market occurs on offshore platforms,” the study says.

“Based on current third-party estimates of industry growth, U.S.-based activity in offshore forecasting markets could grow to an estimated $133 billion in annual volume by 2030, assuming constant relative market shares for the regulated and offshore markets,” she added.

The findings put the spotlight on Polymarket, the largest offshore platform, which estimated that about $10.6 billion to $26.7 billion of the $55.6 billion trading volume over 12 months could be attributed to US users, even though they are not technically allowed on the platform.

The company that It was pushed offshore by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, He said it was Given the “green light” to start the live broadcast In the United States last fall. Since that time, the US regulated Polymarket platform has slowly rolled out, but volumes have not been separated by study, due to unreliable data.

Data from the Dune dashboard indicates that a regulated US version of Polymarket exists It has recorded around $5 billion in notional volumes so far.

A Polymarket representative did not immediately respond Decryption Request for comment.

Although Polymarket was the largest offshore marketplace evaluated, the study also looked at data from other unregulated marketplaces such as Opinion, Predict, Limitless, and Myriad. (Disclaimer: Myriad is a product Decryption parent company, Dastan).

According to the coalition, which consists of regulated prediction market operators, this presents a major problem, as offshore markets are not subject to the same standards as US regulations.

“Americans are using VPNs to access unregulated offshore prediction market platforms that offer contracts on death and war.” Posted on X. “Now, we finally know how big this market is.”

“These platforms are not subject to the same customer verification requirements, anti-money laundering controls, or market safety oversight that protect US traders,” she added.

While the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed new rules on Wednesday Market outcomes based on war or assassination will be prohibitedhe’s been overwhelmed with stress and scrutiny over the past few months States and lawmakers are backing down Its regulation and the growing range of prediction markets under its jurisdiction.

New CFTC Chairman Mike Selig has remained adamant about his jurisdiction over the platforms, Saying “see you in court” In February When states began to challenge the authority of the regulatory body.

Earlier this week, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren said Request answers about regulatory body oversightdoubting whether it could effectively regulate prediction markets while highlighting that its workforce had been significantly reduced.