Aave (AAVE) is trading near $91 after losing nearly 75% of its value since its peak in August 2025. The coin is now retesting long-term support, with the daily bearish trend line flipping from resistance to temporary support.
The setup presents a binary image. Bulls see a potential 49% move towards $135 if support holds. Bears indicate a confirmed weekly double top and exchange supply rise affecting the price.
Exchange flows rise as AAVE supplies increase on exchanges
Santiment data shows that exchange inflows from AAVE rose over the past two days. The reading represents the largest set of flows since March 2026. It corresponds closely with the recent sell-off from $112 to $90.
Supply on exchanges has also risen steadily since early April. The gauge rose first along with the push up. It then accelerated as the price fell, indicating more active distribution Owners.
Both signs indicate that the coins moved to exchanges first to sell aggressively. New coins kept arriving as prices collapsed. The bearish reading will only fluctuate if the exchange supply begins to decline and daily flows calm.
The weekly chart is indicating a reversal despite the long-term double top
The on-chain picture is heavy, but the weekly chart has a contradictory signal. AAVE has printed a long-term double top. The first peak reached approximately $380 in December 2024. The second peak reached approximately $360 in August 2025.
Since the August high, the token has fallen approximately 75%. It now lies within the green support zone for May. There are still three bullish resistance areas above the price, at $135, $215 and the $360 to $380 range.
Last week, AAVE pushed for a weekly gain of about 33%. This move also broke the downtrend line drawn from the August high. A downward trend line has also broken out parallel to the volume, indicating stronger buyer involvement. However, the move faded and the price closed near the weekly open.
The weekly MACD may record its first bullish crossover since May. A confirmed crossover would signal a new shift in momentum. The RSI is still leaning lower near the oversold zone, so the momentum story is not yet conclusive. Recent protocol changes are related to AAVE Judgment So far it has failed to raise prices.
AAVE price forecast to rise by 49% if trend line support holds
On the daily chart, AAVE is trading within a bearish parallel channel dating back to January 2026. The downtrend line carried over from the weekly chart was exploited twice before the breakout, on March 16 and March 25.
On April 13, the price broke the trend line and extended to $112. The move restored almost all of the gains within days. On April 19, the trend line was retested from above, flipping to short-term support.
If support holds and the bulls reclaim the center line of the channel, the first target is near $135. This represents an increase of approximately 49% from current levels. A confirmed weekly MACD crossover would reinforce this scenario, as would a test of the second trend line that continues.
Daily indicators remain neutral at the moment, with the RSI approaching 42 and the MACD slightly positive. The last two sessions also recorded a spike in volume consistent with bearish candles. This is important considering recent times oracle Issues that renewed caution among AAVE traders.
Revocation is straightforward. A daily close below the green support zone near $80 will invalidate the retest hypothesis. Deeper declines then become likely for the broader AAVE market.
this post AAVE price down 75% since August peak – what’s next for the altcoin? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
