XRP has fallen nearly 70% from its July 2025 high of around $3.66, and was trading near $1.12 by early July 2026. This type of drawdown tests even sick holders. But a growing number of chart watchers say the pain may be masking something bigger going on underneath.
A trend line that continues to bounce
One analyst noted To the long-term uptrend line that XRP has followed since 2020, a line that has already passed three major tests. Every time the price falls to touch the rising support line, it bounces back strongly. The first came in April 2020 at near 16 cents, followed by a rise to nearly $2 a year later. The second came in mid-2022, followed by a rise of about 94 cents. The third arrived in late 2024, triggering a move to an all-time high last year.
Why the fourth test matters
XRP may now be approaching the fourth test of the trend line itself, somewhere in the 74 to 80 cents range. This number is important because of what happened the last time XRP performed a fourth retest on a previous version of the same architecture. Back in February 2017, XRP bottomed at nearly half a cent after three previous trendline defenses dating back to 2013. What followed was a rally to $3.31 by January 2018, a move of about 63,000 percent.
Repetition is unlikely, but not the goal
No one serious expects XRP to repeat this exact percentage. The asset is much larger now, the market is more mature, and each retest since 2020 has actually produced smaller percentage moves than the ones before it. This is normal for an asset that has grown from a fraction of a cent to a multi-billion dollar market. Smaller does not mean slim. Even a partial repeat of past sessions could represent a significant move from current prices.
The level that everyone sees
What is more important now is whether XRP will hold the 74 to 80 cents area if it gets there. A successful defense would strengthen the argument that the broader structure remains intact. A break below it, without any recovery, would significantly weaken the comparison to previous sessions.
Markets don’t repeat perfectly, and old patterns fail more often than the headlines suggest. But this setup gives stockholders a specific level of monitoring rather than just reacting to short-term price fluctuations, and this distinction alone shapes how traders approach the next few months.
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