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When astronomers search for a new planet, they don’t see it with their own eyes. They watch the wobble, or the way a massive, invisible object pulls everything around it out of its path. For years, this was exactly how investors traded SpaceX (Spex). They couldn’t own the company itself, so they bought its attractive shadows: satellite makers, launch companies, and Earth imagers based around the same idea.
Then the planet appeared.
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135, opened near $150, and within days reached $225, more than 50% above its offering price, pushing its valuation toward $3 trillion.
This is the largest public debut in the market’s history. The moment the real thing became tradable, the shadows darkened. Agents that had survived for years on borrowed light began to retreat toward Earth.
But this sale says nothing about the basics of the space.
It’s mechanical…a plumbing problem in how money flows, not a judgment of physics.
So let me walk you through what this IPO has already proven, why orbital computing may be the most valuable real estate of the next decade, and what modest names could lead a comeback round.
Thesis Bull on SpaceX
Start with the revolutionary thesis about SpaceX, because it’s simpler than it sounds. SpaceX is building AWS for space…the cloud layer for AI computing that lives above the atmosphere.
Currently, the cost of terrestrial computing is about $1 per GPU hour according to our team’s estimates. Orbital arithmetic? It’s called $142. Seems like a closed case, doesn’t it?
Look closer.
The ground account is linked to resources.
Electricity, land, water, permits… those follow scarcity curves, and scarcity curves don’t fall. They’re crawling up.
Orbital calculation is related to technology. Launch costs, chips, grids, space solar…those follow the technology curves, and the technology curves are going down dramatically.
Somewhere in the 2030s, and perhaps as early as 2030, these two lines will intersect. When they do this, calculate the moves to the stars. And SpaceX has the only elevator: reusable launch, Starlink, satellite manufacturing, and soon spacecraft-sized payloads.
That’s why a valuation of 80 times next year’s sales can feel rich and still feel less.
After all, you’re buying a gatekeeper to humanity’s most valuable infrastructure asset, and the gatekeepers get a premium.
Now, the names that the market has just left for dead…
5 space stocks to buy now
Astspace Mobile (Estes) is the telecom industry’s counterweight to Starlink — deep alignment with carriers that would rather not replace Elon. It is at its 200-day moving average, a line that has held since 2024.
Rocket laboratory (He rode) is a credible launch partner that is not affiliated with SpaceX — think of competitors who won’t run their operations on a competitor’s cloud. They need iteration, and Rocket Lab is the only real alternative.
Planet Laboratories (but rather) has an ever-present Earth observation dataset starved for AI models, and is the cheapest grower in the group at about 20 times its turnover.
Black Sky (Pixi) is the high-torque version of Planet – smaller, more defensive, more dangerous, and potentially a bigger winner if the trade is successful.
So here’s the playbook…
Take the SpaceX rally off the August closes, buy the dip across these space names, participate in a comeback round, and then pivot back to SpaceX by the end of the year to balance out. For exposure to one ticket, there is Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA).
We are in the early stages of space becoming infrastructure, people, and music playback.
We break down the five names, plus full orbital arithmetic and the Kessler Syndrome question everyone keeps asking, in this week’s episode Being exponential. Listen here!
