XRP is struggling at $1.35. The market is preparing for a volatile week. Quietly, the data on Binance tells a story that the price chart has not yet decided to believe.
The Arabic Chain report tracking supply dynamics on Binance identified a reading that stands out against the current bearish background: the XRP scarcity index has reached 0.59 – its highest level since 2024. This number reflects something specific and consequential. The supply of XRP available for immediate sale on the platform is shrinking, not expanding.
Related reading
Currencies leave exchanges. Investors are withdrawing into their own portfolios, closing out their long-term positions, and removing liquidity from more accessible selling places in the market.
Historical context increases the importance. This same index spent months in deep negative territory – recording its worst readings during periods of intense selling pressure and extreme exchange flows earlier in the cycle.
The move into positive territory, and now toward a multi-year high, represents a behavioral reversal: sellers who were flooding the market are pulling back, and the market is now falling. Owners Those who replace them do not sell.
XRP price at $1.35 looks fragile. Rarity data suggests that the ground beneath is quietly being strengthened. One of them will prove correct first.
Sellers are backing down. The question is whether buyers are ready to move on
Arabic behavioral series He reads Of scarcity data is where reporting becomes most important. The scarcity index rising to its highest level since 2024 is not just a measure of supply – it is a behavioral fingerprint. It reflects who currently holds XRP and what they intend to do with it.
The answer, according to the data, is that the short sellers who took control earlier in the cycle are being replaced by an entirely different class of participants: long-term holders, who are quietly accumulating, withdrawing from exchanges, and removing their coins from the available sell-side pool.
This shift has a name in market structure analysis. It’s called the Accumulation Phase, and the Scarcity Index reaching its highest level in several years is one of its clearest signatures on the chain. Short-term selling pressures are declining. Investor confidence is growing, at least among those who move coins off exchanges. The balance of the market is tilted towards buyers.
The report is cautious about what comes next. The accumulation hypothesis holds only if two conditions persist: market sentiment continues to improve in general, and the exchange supply continues to contract. If both continue, the setup for a stronger price movement is building gradually but structurally.
XRP at $1.35 is the price the market is offering. Scarcity data suggests that fewer participants want to sell there.
Related reading
The XRP chart did not change its mind.
XRP is trading at $1.3510, up 1.75% on the day – the green candle opened at $1.3279, reached $1.3669, and is making modest gains into the afternoon session. On any other chart, a daily gain of 1.75% would be unnoticeable. In this regard, it barely registers against the damage accumulated since July.
The daily structure is unambiguous and has been for months. XRP peaked near $3.90 in late July 2025, and has been tracking a downward staircase since then — lower highs in August, October, January, and March, with each high sold off at a lower level than the previous one. The February capitulation wick to $1.15, accompanied by the largest selling volume on the entire chart, has established the ground that the market is currently defending. This defense has held up. It has not yet become the basis.
Related reading
The three moving averages confirm structural damage. The 50-day EMA has crossed below the 100-day EMA – a death cross on the intermediate time frame – and both are accelerating lower towards the $1.60-1.80 area. The 200-day moving average is descending from around the $2.10 level, which is a long way from the current price, making reclaiming it a medium-term aspiration, rather than a near-term goal.
Today’s candle is constructive. The trend around it is not. XRP needs a daily close above $1.45 to start indicating that the post-capitulation range is building a base rather than forming a continuation pattern towards lower levels.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
