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Ahmed Balaha
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The XRP cryptocurrency is trading at $1.32, and while the price chart looks shaky, the data underneath tells a different story.
The on-chain scarcity index for XRP on Binance has reached 0.59 — its highest reading since 2024 — as coins leave exchanges at a pace that mechanically squeezes the available sell-side pool.
Size is not accurate. On March 10 alone, nearly $738 million worth of XRP was withdrawn from major exchanges in a single 24-hour window, which analysts described as one of the largest single-day net outflows recorded in a year to date.
February saw 7.03 billion XRP exit centralized exchanges entirely, with Binance accounting for approximately 3.38 billion of that volume. The mechanics of supply are changing – but the price is not yet fully priced in.
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XRP Crypto Price Prediction: Can We Hold $1.40 as Exchange Balances Drop?
XRP is pressing the $1.40 resistance area which analysts have described as the crucial battleground. Below it, the $1.27-$1.30 range represents the next important support group.
The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is hovering around 42 – which is not oversold, but it is not generating momentum signals either. The 50-day moving average is just above the spot price, limiting intraday recovery attempts.
The difference on the string is the real tension here. Whale wallets amassed nearly 40 million XRP in March, even as US-listed spot XRP ETFs — which now have combined assets of $1.02 billion — recorded $30.12 million in net outflows over the same period.
CoinShares data provides XRP fund globally Outflows $130 million this month. Institutional selling and whale buying collide directly at the $1.40 level.
On the chart, $1.27 is the really important line, because as long as the price stays above it, the accumulation story remains intact, especially as whales get in and ETF flows start to stabilize, which could open the door for a push through $1.40 and a move higher if momentum follows.
But right now, it’s more of a tug of war, with XRP likely to fall between $1.27 and $1.40 while the market figures itself out, because you have strong accumulation on one side and constant selling pressure on the other, neither of which are fully in control yet.
If the $1.27 level breaks this volume, the entire setup will start to break down quickly and open the door for a deeper pullback, because at this point the price no longer respects the accumulation zone, and this always takes priority over any signal on the chain.
What makes this cycle different is the institutional layer, with players like Bitwise holding huge chunks of XRP through ETF products, meaning that even small outflows can hit the order book hard, while Ripple continues to build out its infrastructure in the background, which is exactly the kind of long-term story that larger players tend to lead.
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