Hello everyone, This is my view on the current setup for XAUUSD.
Market analysis
Gold continues to trade on a constructive tone as the broader market backdrop remains fragile. Although stocks typically benefit from the so-called April effect, the current environment appears much less supportive than usual. Rising inflation risks due to energy, fading expectations of interest rate cuts, and concerns about the quality of corporate earnings are all creating pressures on risk sentiment. Meanwhile, geopolitical tension in the Middle East adds another layer of uncertainty, keeping safe haven flows relevant to gold.
Technically, the XAUUSD pair is still moving within an ascending channel, keeping the short-term bullish structure intact. The recent pullback did not break the broader trend. Instead, the price found support again near the bottom side of the structure and is now trying to recover back towards resistance.
The key point on this chart is the 4681 area. This is the near-term breakout level that needs to be cleared for an upward continuation to look stronger. If buyers can push the price above this zone and hold, the next upward path opens towards the 4692-4707 resistance zone, which is also marked as a liquid sell zone on the chart.
Even if some selling pressure appears there first, the broader structure still suggests that gold may continue to rise as long as the ascending support line remains valid. Above that, the largest target remains near the monthly peak area around 4775-4800, which is the main bullish target shown in the image.
So, for now, the technical picture still supports a recovery bias. Gold does not collapse. It consolidates below resistance while still respecting trend support, and this usually keeps buyers interested unless the structure is lost.
Key levels to watch
Current price zone: around 4678
Buy confirmation level: above 4681
Near-term resistance/liquidity zone: 4692-4707
Main upside target: monthly high around 4775-4800
Trend support/invalidation area: below 4599
My scenario and strategy
My preferred view remains bullish as gold continues to hold above the uptrend line. The cleanest setup would be a confirmed break above 4681, as that would show that buyers are regaining control after the recent consolidation.
If the price continues above this level, XAUUSD may continue towards the 4692-4707 resistance area first. A stable reaction will be important, because if gold absorbs this supply well, the uptrend could extend towards the monthly high area near 4775-4800.
However, if the price falls back below the trend line and loses 4599, the bullish structure will weaken and the market may move into a deeper correction before any new recovery attempt develops.
For now, gold still looks supported, the bullish structure remains in place, and the market continues to favor an uptrend as long as trend support is respected.
This is the setup I’m looking at now. Thank you for reading, and always manage your risks carefully.
