Where’s next for Bitcoin after the worst quarter since 2018?

Bitcoin US stocks closed the first quarter of 2026 with their worst performance since early 2018, losing nearly a quarter of their value as war, tariffs and a hawkish Federal Reserve hurt risk assets.

The cryptocurrency fell from around $95,000 in February to nearly $66,700 by the end of the quarter, a roughly 22% decline year-to-date, according to a report. a report From institutional trading firm Talos, citing data from its financial intelligence arm, Coin Metrics. Losses reached 34.6% at the lowest point during the quarter for each company.

Bitcoin remains anchored in a $66,000-$70,000 range with whale transfers at multi-year lows and no meaningful levels to defend bids, according to a research note shared with Wintermute. Decryption.

Institutions and individual investors alike are “sitting on the sidelines, unwilling to commit capital” until they see regulatory clarity or a shift in geopolitical conditions, the trading firm added.

Despite its painful quarter, Bitcoin held up better than stocks and gold after the coronavirus outbreak on February 28. It was Iranfalling just 1.5% compared to a 17% decline in gold, a 7.6% decline in the Nasdaq, and a 7.4% decline in the S&P 500 over the same period, according to data from Talos.

Bitcoin’s performance this quarter looks more like a “macro-driven reset than a structural shift,” said Samar Sen, head of international markets at Talos, said. Decryption.

He added: “Cryptocurrencies, along with other risky assets, have come under pressure following the escalation of the Iranian conflict, along with tariffs and expectations of tougher policy.”

Sen explained that U.S.-traded bitcoin ETFs hold nearly $100 billion in assets and saw net inflows resume in March, suggesting institutional demand has weathered the drawdown.

Liquidity across order books has also recovered from the lows of late 2025, allowing markets to “absorb larger moves,” with market structure “holding up more consistently” compared to previous cycles, he added.

“Periods of macro uncertainty tend to slow down risk appetite, but they also tend to put a greater emphasis on risk management and portfolio diversification, and we are seeing continued institutional engagement in this context,” he said.

Access reset

US monetary policy could be the most important variable for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory, according to Zeus Research analyst Dominic John, who said: Decryption A pause or easing by the Fed would “free up liquidity, increase risk appetite, and help stabilize Bitcoin,” while continued tightening “could tighten liquidity and increase selling pressures.”

A resolution of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could provide a “critical catalyst” for next quarter, with the Fed’s stance on interest rate cuts serving as a “critical turning point for either a strong recovery or further collapse,” said Ryan Yun, senior analyst at Tiger Research. Decryption.

In the prediction market Countlessowned by DecryptionParent company Dastan, Users Only mode 5% chance The Fed should cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points in the first half of the year. Countless users are also pessimistic about the Iranian conflict, with the odds of it happening Ceasefire between the United States and Iran before June It decreased from 58% at the beginning of the week to 39% today, while the chances of this happening are high American forces on the ground before May It jumped from 57% to 87% in the same time frame.

Marcus Levin, co-founder of decentralized data network Decryption.

“Bitcoin use has historically increased during periods of economic stress, and will likely rise again if conflict continues,” he said. “This demand will not offset global macro forces in the short term, but over time could push Bitcoin toward behaving like a neutral reserve asset, closer to gold.”

Bitcoin was trading at about $66,830 at press time, and is flat during the day, according to CoinGecko data.