USD/CHF fell sharply yesterday on the back of a broad sell-off in the US dollar, and in the process Break below a set of key technical levelsincluding:
- 200 day moving average At 0.7943
- Swing level Close to 0.79235
- 100 day moving average At 0.78877
- 38.2% retracement of the 2026 trading range At 0.78735
This sequence of breaks indicates a major shift in bias. However, this step lacks complete conviction. The break below the 38.2% retracement level was shallow, as was the pair It rebounded in lockdownTo return to the swing level 0.79235.
It has since become A level Key risk identification measure. In today’s trading, rallies were halted against 0.79235 on two separate occasions during the Asian and early European sessions, cementing it as near-term resistance. The sellers leaned on this ceiling, and it has held up so far.
In early North American trading, the pair fell again, bringing the focus back to bearish targets. the The 100-day moving average is at 0.78877 It is the first major level, followed closely by 38.2% retracement at 0.78735. This area is critical. A clean breakout and sustained move below would give sellers more control and open the door for a rally to:
- Swing zone from early March Between 0.78348 and 0.7840
- 50% is the middle of the trading range for 2026 At 0.78216
Sellers have made their initial payment, but the next step is crucial. They need that Staying below the 100-day moving average and extending through the retracement level To confirm the downward momentum.
On the other hand, 0.79235 remains the near-term risk level. A move back above this swing zone would weaken the bearish bias and force a reassessment of control.
In short, the battle lines were drawn:
- Below 0.78877-0.78735 keeps sellers accountable
- Above 0.79235 returns control to the buyers
