The VCX craze is a warning to AI IPO investors

It started out as one of the biggest electric market debuts in recent memory. On March 19, Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX) – one publicly traded security – Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX – listed on the New York Stock Exchange and quickly went out of style. Within four trading sessions, shares rose 1,740%, from $31.25 to an intraday high of $575. Triggered circuit breakers. The trading halt was called on consecutive days. At its peak, investors were paying more than 30 times the actual value of the assets within the fund.

Then came Citron.

On March 26, short selling firm Andrew Left posted a bulletin on X with a simple message and chart titled “VCX Explodes!” Within minutes, the stock fell from more than $400 to about $270 with 31,000 shares changing hands. By close, shares were down 49%. The fund that retail investors flocked to as a ticket to the AI ​​revolution has been cut almost in half in a single session.

As of this writing, VCX is trading at around $130 – which is roughly a 585% premium to the actual value of its underlying assets. The obsession is not over yet. But the easy part of trading is.

We will post this on April 1st. None of it is a joke. The most important part of the story is still ahead.

Inside the AI ​​IPO Pipeline: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX

No one pays 30 times the value of something unless they desperately want what’s inside. So what’s inside?

VCX’s largest holding is… Anthropic – One of the most important artificial intelligence companies in the world. In fact, by many accounts, the best parametric model available today has been constructed. And the company’s revenue trajectory is simply historic: from nearly $1 billion a year at the start of 2025 to a run rate of $14 billion by early 2026. It closed a $30 billion Series G in February 2026 at a $380 billion valuation, hired an advisor to the IPO, and is widely expected to file for a public listing before the end of the year. When that happens, it will almost certainly be one of the most important market events in a generation.

Then there OpenAI, The company that started the entire AI boom. The creator of ChatGPT put generative AI on the cultural map and permanently changed what consumers and organizations expect from software. The company’s latest financing round is valued at $840 billion, and is targeting a potential IPO valuation of $1 trillion. This would make it, for starters, one of the most valuable companies in American history.

Among her smaller – but no less important – possessions is… SpaceX: Widely considered the world’s most valuable private company. Its Starlink satellite Internet network serves millions of subscribers in 155 countries. Its Falcon 9 rocket handles more than half of all Earth orbital launches. The company filed confidential IPO documents with the Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this month, and is targeting a June 2026 listing at a valuation between $1.5 and $1.75 trillion — a number that would make its IPO the largest in history by a wide margin, dwarfing even Saudi AramcoRecord bid worth $29.4 billion.

VCX owns the three companies — before they go public — through a single, liquid, exchange-traded security that any retail investor can buy using a brokerage account. No wonder the market was crazy about it.

But there is a big difference between something being conceptually comprehensible and being financially rational.

The mathematics behind the VCX feature problem

At the time of its listing, VCX’s net asset value (NAV) was $18.97 per share. Within four trading days, it reached an intraday high of $575 – more than 30 times The actual value of its underlying assets.

Now, as of this writing, the fund is trading at around $130.

What is the reason for this sharp decline? The structure cannot support the price.

At its peak, investors weren’t just buying shares of Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX. They were paying a high price for access, access that only exists as long as those companies remain private.

This distinction matters more than any valuation model – because the moment access becomes widely available, the premium collapses.

This is the fundamental flaw of VCX. The trade depends not so much on the success of these companies as on how long they remain elusive.

Walk through mechanics. VCX owns minority stakes in a few elite private companies. The appeal is straightforward: you can’t buy Anthropy outright, so you buy the closest dealer. In the first days after listing, this scarcity pushed the shares to extraordinary levels.

But scarcity is fading. Liquidity no.

When these companies eventually go public for an IPO, the rationale for paying a premium quickly erodes. Investors are no longer buying access. They own a fund that owns what can be bought right now – without the price increase.

As the underlying companies succeed, the fund’s advantage shrinks.

This is a trade where success becomes an exit signal.

There’s also the supply side. Most pre-IPO VCX investors are locked into entry prices of around $19 per share. When this ban ends and that large base of bondholders can sell in public markets, the supply shock will be severe. This kind of accumulation does not require a shift in narrative, but merely opportunity.

What is happening now is a transitional phase.

VCX is moving from a narrative-driven asset – priced based on scarcity and excitement – ​​to a financial asset, where price must match net asset value, liquidity and supply.

Assets at that stage rarely bear the maximum premiums.