A trading expert warned that technical indicators point to further correction in the index Standard & Poor’s 500 indicator in the coming months.
It is worth noting that the index showed fluctuations during 2026, largely driven by uncertainties resulting from geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. However, with the fragile ceasefire, there are expectations that the index may rise further.
Amid this uncertainty, the S&P 500 has traded above 6,500 for much of the year, with many forecasts suggesting it could hit 7,000 by the end of the year. As of press time, the index was trading at 6,616, down 3.5% year-to-date.
Standard & Poor’s 500 forecast
However, in A TradingView mail On April 7, Trading Expert TradingShot He pointed out that the index faces bearish sentiment as it approaches one day Death cross. This signal occurs when the 50-day moving average (Master’s) It crosses below the 200-day moving average.
Analyst insights indicate that similar settings over the past eight years have consistently led to notable corrections.
These include rapid downturns, such as the pandemic-induced collapse in 2020, and longer downturns such as those seen in 2018 and 2022.
In each case, the market followed a recognizable pattern where there was an initial decline, then a bounce towards the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, and then a renewed sell-off towards deeper extension levels.
according to TradingShotthe current setup reflects previous fractal patterns, as it has already fallen by about 10% and rebounded to a medium-term Fibonacci level. However, this recovery may lose steam as price action begins to move near the top of the long-term upward channel.
Meanwhile, the weekly RSI is trending lower towards 36, a level that is historically in line with major lows, but only after significant declines. Previous sessions also show that pullbacks often extend to the 200-week moving average before stabilizing.
Together, these signals point to a new downtrend, with a lower bearish target around 5700 and the potential for a deeper decline towards 5500 if longer-term support is fully tested. The timeline suggests that this correction could peak in the fourth quarter of 2026 before stabilizing.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Fundamentals
Despite a weak start to 2026, underlying fundamentals remain supportive of the index.
For example, first-quarter 2026 earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to grow about 13.2% year over year, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains, while revenues are expected to rise about 9.7% amid resilient corporate performance.
On the other hand, Wall Street pHe remains broadly optimistic For the rest of the year, with agreed year-end targets in the 7,100 to 7,800 range, and a more optimistic outlook closer to 8,000, supported by earnings momentum, AI-driven productivity gains, and expectations for economic resilience.
