Iran has reactivated underground missile bunkers, and there have been several aircraft accidents between US and Iranian forces over the past 24 hours. The percentage of US forces entering Iran by April 30 reaches 86%, compared to 62% yesterday.
The market is showing growing expectations that US ground forces will enter Iran soon. The April 30 market rose 24 points in one day, suggesting that traders see a greater opportunity for escalation. The market rate at December 31 is 90.5% yes, up from 72% yesterday, indicating confidence in the possibility of onshore intervention by the end of the year.
Trading volumes are significant, with trading volume reaching $4.16 million per day for the April market. It takes $85,000 to move the odds by 5 points, showing strong institutional interest. The largest single move was a 4-point rise at 2:14 PM, likely caused by heavy demand. In December, $912K USDC is traded daily, with $52K moving 5 pips, reflecting more cautious positions on a longer time frame.
The reactivation of missile bunkers and ongoing aircraft accidents indicate the intensity of the ongoing conflict. As US and Israeli strikes continue, traders are interpreting the developments as a significant increase in the possibility of US forces being on the ground. At 86 cents, a YES share pays $1 if troops enter by April 30 — a 1.16x return. This market movement suggests that traders are betting on further escalation rather than a diplomatic breakthrough.
Monitor statements from US Central Command, Pentagon briefings, and any Congressional moves regarding war powers. These can greatly affect the market odds.
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