A new brief from the Bitcoin Policy Institute argues that recent breakthroughs in quantum computing are accelerating the timeline in which Bitcoin crypto could face credible threats, while emphasizing that developers are already preparing solutions.
In her report, State of Play: Quantum Computing and Bitcoin’s Path ForwardBitcoin Policy Institute points to two research papers released on March 31 by Google and the California Institute of Technology Reshape old assumptions About the computing power required to crack Bitcoin encryption.
For years, it has been estimated that an attacker would need around 10 million qubits to exploit Shor’s algorithm and compromise Bitcoin’s security model. According to the Bitcoin Policy Institute’s analysis of Google’s results, this limit could be reduced to less than 500,000 qubits. A separate paper includes Caltech and the University of California, Berkeley Pointing Specialized quantum systems can reduce this requirement further, to a range of 10,000 to 26,000 qubits.
The Bitcoin Policy Institute notes that the two papers take different approaches — one emphasizing software efficiency and the other on hardware design — but they reach the same conclusion: the resource requirements for a quantum attack are declining.
Despite this shift, the organization emphasizes this Bitcoin is not under immediate threat. Current quantum machines are still well below the levels described in the research. Google’s most advanced Willow processor runs at just over 100 qubits, leaving a wide gap between theoretical and practical capability.
However, the Bitcoin Policy Institute takes the results as an indication that preparations should continue at a rapid pace. The report highlights ongoing efforts within the Bitcoin developer community to address long-term risks associated with quantum computing.
The focus of this work is BIP-360,A an offer Which the Bitcoin Policy Institute describes as one of the most active areas of development in the protocol’s history. The proposal introduces a new address format that prevents public keys from being exposed during transactions, eliminating a key vulnerability that quantum attackers can exploit.
The Bitcoin Policy Institute points to a testnet launched in March that has already attracted more than 50 miners and more than 100 crypto professionals. The group believes that the level of participation reflects strong consensus among technical contributors.
The report also confirms that Bitcoin’s current architecture provides flexibility. The Taproot upgrade, activated in 2021, includes features that can support quantum-resistant verification methods with alternative spending conditions.
Beyond the Bitcoin ecosystem, the Bitcoin Policy Institute places the issue within a broader policy context. The National Institute of Standards and Technology finalizes post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024, and offers tools that can be adapted to Bitcoin. Federal agencies have been given a deadline of 2035 to move to quantum-resistant systems, while Google has set an internal target of 2029.
Bitcoin’s decentralized structure is challenging
The Bitcoin Policy Institute emphasizes that Bitcoin’s decentralized structure presents a clear challenge. Unlike governments or corporations, the network cannot force upgrades. Any change must arise through consensus among participants.
However, the report points to previous updates as evidence that coordination is possible. With quantum security, says the Bitcoin Policy Institute, incentives are aligned across the network, with all stakeholders relying on maintaining the integrity of the system.
The report concludes that the quantum threat is not imminent, but the timeline is narrowing. In the Bitcoin Policy Institute’s view, technical solutions are already taking shape, and the focus now turns to how the network can reach an agreement on deployment.
Yesterday, new research an offer From StarkWare, Avihu Levy introduced “Quantum Safe Bitcoin” (QSB), a scheme designed to protect Bitcoin transactions from future quantum attacks without requiring changes to the network’s underlying protocol.
This approach shifts security away from weak ECDSA signatures toward hash-based assumptions, with the goal of protecting against threats like Shor’s algorithm while remaining compatible with the current Bitcoin ecosystem.
