Polymarket traders give Trump’s Iran ceasefire deadline just a 3% chance of success, based on live trading volume of more than $103 million. This single number captures everything about where market sentiment stands right now.
The numbers send a clear message: The public doesn’t see any agreement arriving on Trump’s timeline.
The crowd has already decided: No deal on Tuesday
Iran refused Proposing a 45-day ceasefire mediated primarily by Pakistan, with Egypt and Turkey also participating as mediators. Tehran responded with its 10-point plan, demanding a permanent end to the war instead. Trump rejected the Iranian response as insufficient and insisted that the deadline he set on Tuesday was final.
The Polymarket probability curve is shown Possibilities for a ceasefire It only rises slowly across future dates. Traders estimate the chances are 15% by April 15 and 29% by the end of April. The window extends to 59% by June 30 and 76% by the end of December.
A separate Polymarket contract on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz paints an equally bleak picture. This market assigns only 14% odds for traffic to return to normal levels by April 30. The contract has fallen by more than 51 percentage points since it first opened for trading.
Oil Shock Meets Cryptocurrency: Bill Approaching Due Date
The ongoing war has pushed oil prices up sharply as the strait remains effectively closed to normal traffic. PolyMarket separate report “Will WTI Hit $120 in April?” a contract It now stands at 77%, a stark reflection of how traders view the energy crisis. Together, both markets paint a picture of a world in which war drags on and oil remains expensive.
Polymarket fans are betting that Tuesday’s deadline will pass without any breakthrough agreement. The 3% odds of holding a ceasefire barely changed even as mediators worked over the weekend. Until that number changes decisively, prediction markets say the struggle is still long.
this post Polymarket gives Trump’s Iran deadline only a 3% chance appeared first on BeInCrypto.
