The price of Ethereum (ETH) is clinging to a 2.93% gain in March, its first green month since August 2025. It closed every month from September through February in the red, triggering a six-month losing streak that wiped out more than 50% of Ethereum’s value.
With only a few days left in March, the question is whether Ethereum can sustain these gains or whether the forces building against it will turn the month in the red and extend the streak to seven.
March started off strong, but the second half tells a different story
The monthly returns chart shows the damage. September 2025 decreased by 5.59%. October fell by 7.15%. November crashed 22.2%. December decreased by 0.83%. January 2026 lost 17.7%, and February 19.6%.
March’s +2.93% stands alone in the green, but the number hides what happened in the second half of the month.
On the 4-hour chart, Ethereum price It has been trading within a bearish channel since March 16, when it peaked at $2,380. The channel pushed ETH as low as $1,970, a roughly 18% retracement from the mid-March high. ETH price is currently near $2020, still inside the channel and still trending lower.
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The first half of March brought gains. The second half was steadily bringing them back. If the channel continues to pressure the price towards the lower limit, the remaining days of March may determine whether the line will break or extend.
Two conviction-based metrics suggest that the bears are gaining ground heading into the month’s close.
Whales are down and buyers are backing down
Ethereum whale walletsexcluding exchange addresses, held 122.91 million ETH 48 hours ago. This balance has since fallen to 122.73 million, a decrease of approximately 180,000 ETH. The timing is worrying as it coincides with the price sliding towards the lower end of the descending channel.
The Money Flow Index (MFI), a volume-weighted momentum indicator that acts as a proxy for buying, adds another layer of concern. Between March 8 and March 28, the price of Ethereum trended upward on the 4-hour chart. However, during the same period, MFIs trended toward decline.
This bearish divergence means that support for buying on the dip has weakened throughout March, even as the monthly price action remains in the green. Each successive decline has attracted less buying volume than the previous decline. When whales retreat, and buyers fade simultaneously, the condemnation floor below the current price becomes lower.
If the broader market continues to weaken, these two metrics suggest that Ethereum may not have the demand to hold on to its March gains.
Ethereum price forecast and $1,970 area
The key level is $1,972 ($1,970 area). It has held as support since early March.
A 4-hour close below the $1,970 level would break both the stronger support level (0.618 Fibonacci level) and Push ETH closer To the lower border of the descending channel.
Below that, $1,910 and $1,830 are in play. A break below $1830 would confirm a breakdown of the channel, and an expected decline of around 10% from this level targets the $1650 area. However, this type of decline may take some time to materialize.
On the upside, ETH needs to reclaim the $2,050 area and hold above it to ease immediate pressure. Above that, the upper boundary of the channel near 2110 becomes the first real test of strength.
Currently, $1,970 separates Ethereum’s first green month in seven months from a collapse that could push it toward $1,650.
this post Ethereum is struggling to break a 6-month curse, but things could get worse appeared first on BeInCrypto.
