Key takeaways
- Bitcoin holds near $69,000, as geopolitical tensions related to Iran make markets cautious.
- Rising oil prices and inflation fears are capping the upside, but strong ETF inflows and institutional support are helping Bitcoin remain resilient.
Bitcoin is trading sideways near the $69,000 level as investors remain cautious amid rising geopolitical tensions linked to the conflict in Iran.
The leading cryptocurrency briefly rose above $70,000 on Monday — its first move past that level since March — but failed to maintain momentum.
Geopolitics dominates market sentiment
The ongoing situation in Iran continues to impact global risk appetite. US President Donald Trump warned of dire consequences if an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is not reached by Tuesday’s deadline of 20:00 EST.
Iran has rejected a proposed 45-day ceasefire, calling instead for a permanent cessation of hostilities along with the lifting of sanctions.
For Bitcoin, this macro backdrop is important — higher oil prices tend to support inflation, push Treasury yields higher, and boost expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Despite the current situation, Bitcoin has held up better than some traditional markets. Although it has not made a breakout, its ability to sustain levels above $65,000 indicates fundamental support from positioning and institutional demand.
Meanwhile, gold has lost more than 10% of its value as investors reduce their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
Inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs have been a major factor. After four consecutive months of outflows, March saw net inflows of $1.2 billion. The momentum continued into April, with spot ETFs recording inflows of $471.3 million in a single day – the largest since February.
These inflows helped sustain the price of Bitcoin, although resistance near $76,000 is still on the rise.
For Bitcoin to rise, a clear catalyst will likely be needed. A confirmed ceasefire between the United States and Iran could be pivotal, especially if it pushes oil prices below $100 a barrel and eases concerns about inflation.
Technical Outlook: Bitcoin is heading towards the $70,000 resistance level again
The 4-hours BTC/USD chart remains bearish and active as Bitcoin continues to defend the $65,000 support level.
The price has recovered from this bottom and is testing resistance near 69K, the 50-day EMA, and the lower band of the ascending channel.
The RSI at 61 on the 4-hour chart is above the neutral level, indicating an increasing bullish bias. The MACD lines are also above the zero line, adding more confluence to the bullish narrative.
Buyers will need to break above $69,000 to highlight $74,000, the midpoint of the up channel and downtrend line resistance dating back to the record high of $126,000 in October.
A break above the $74,000 resistance would allow BTC to test the March high at $76,000 in the near term.
However, failure to rally higher would prompt the bears to push the price towards the $65,000 support level again.
