Bitcoin The weekly chart bears an uncomfortable comparison to one of the most brutal sell-offs in its history, at least one analyst believes. Maybe the worst is still to come.
This technical outlook views the current price action as a mirror of the 2022 macro fractal sequence that sent Bitcoin from $69,000 to a cycle low near $15,500, meaning the current cycle could see a similar decline.
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Repeat 2022? Fractal that raises concerns
Philarekt crypto analyzer Posted a warning on X هذا الأسبوع، حيث حدد ما وصفه بـ “أخطر فراكتل كلي” يحدث حاليًا في هيكل أسعار بيتكوين. The technical condition is based on a side-by-side comparison of two weekly charts for Bitcoin: the 2021 to 2023 cycle on the left and the current cycle on the right.
In the 2021 chart, Bitcoin reached a peak price above $69,000 and proceeded to form a triple-tap structure, which is three distinct lower highs arranged within a descending channel, each bounce being rejected before the final capitulation phase lower. The price eventually fell 34% from the last click to the absolute bottom of the cycle in a move that surprised many market participants.
The current chart, with the cycle peaking at $126,000 in October 2025, shows the same structure Formation in an almost identical ratio. Both the 2022 and 2026 boards show Bitcoin respecting a slanting resistance line at the top while gradually falling inside a downward channel. Each bounce failed to break through, and eventually the price It has created successive lower lows.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @philarekt on X
What happens if the fractal completes?
The weekly Relative Strength Index, which tracks momentum, follows the same pattern observed in 2022. Finally, There is a moving average A death cross on the Bitcoin price chart, where the short-term average crossed below the long-term average.
This cross of death It appeared in early March When the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) crosses below the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA). A death cross equivalent to the 50/200 SMA appeared in 2022 after Bitcoin had already fallen 58% from its high, and then the cryptocurrency fell another 46% before finding a bottom.
If the sequence continues as shown, Bitcoin could be heading for a final capitulation move in the range between $40,000 and $50,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is traded at $72,756, up 1.7% in the past 24 hours. The expected decline is taken directly from the 2022 template: a 34% decline from the current price zone would put Bitcoin price within this range.
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However, the outlook is not entirely bearish after this scenario. The same fractal that signals a breakdown also indicates what comes next. Capitulation in 2022 triggered a move into accumulation that built the foundation for the next bull cycle.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
