Bitcoin exchange-traded funds added $471 million in the largest single-day returns since February

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their largest single-day inflow since late February as investors placed positions ahead of President Trump’s Tuesday night deadline on Iran.

Funds added $471.3 million on Monday, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $181.9 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC with $147.3 million and ARKB with $118.8 million, according to SoSoValue Data. All ETFs recorded net inflows or remained flat, and none experienced outflows.

And the flows come Bitcoin It is trading at around $69,200, down 1% over the past 24 hours and up 3.7% over the week, according to CoinGecko data.

“Institutional positioning right now looks more like measured accumulation than a binary bet on geopolitics,” said Winnie Kay, founder and CEO of decentralized derivatives exchange SynFutures. Decryption.

Kay explained that this move by institutional investors shows that they are backing down, but through “systematic allocation rather than seeking a near-term solution to the conflict in the Middle East.”

These flows come in the wake of a wave of diplomatic activity in the US-Iranian conflict.

Iran Delivered A “10-point” response to America’s “15-point peace plan,” which calls for a permanent cessation of the war, the lifting of all sanctions, and a halt to Israeli strikes in Lebanon. In return, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz but would impose a $2 million fee on each ship, splitting the revenues with Oman.

However, negotiators are “pessimistic” that Iran will bend to meet Trump’s demand to reopen the strait before the deadline he set on Tuesday night. The Wall Street Journal I mentioned.

A strategic advisor to the Iranian parliament speaker spoke in a defiant tone: “Trump is the one who has about 20 hours to either surrender to Iran or his allies will return to the Stone Age,” according to Al Qubaisi’s letter. mail Tuesday.

As a result, oil prices extended their gains to $115.50 per barrel, up 110% since the December 2025 lows, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – a key variable – remains surrounded by uncertainty.

Users in the prediction market Countlessowned by Decryption Parent company Dastan, see A 68% chance The average number of ships crossing the strait will rise to more than 15 before May, compared to 43% on April 3, reflecting growing but cautious optimism. However, countless users put it 84% chance On the next step for crude oil to reach $120.

For Bitcoin, the path forward depends on whether diplomatic efforts succeed or not. Decryption previously I mentionedWith analysts indicating the possibility of retesting the $80,000 amount if ceasefire talks lead to an end to hostilities.

“If tensions subside, bitcoin may be one of the first assets to reprice higher, but the continued rally will still depend more on global liquidity than geopolitical factors alone,” Kay said.

However, Bitcoin’s resilience since the war began on February 29 underscores the shift in its rhetoric. That, coupled with steady demand for ETFs and macro-hedges, could keep bitcoin supported near current levels, with $70,000 acting more as a testing area than a firm floor, tempering the bullish outlook, Kay said.