Bitcoin (BTC) continues to provide mixed trend signals, even as bulls attempt to regain control. At press time, Bitcoin was approaching the $70,000 level after trading below it for approximately eleven days.
Despite this attempted recovery, underlying demand conditions remain fragile. Retail participants and long-term equity holders appear to be reducing their exposure to risk, raising questions about the sustainability of the current move.
The apparent demand highlights structural weakness
Bitcoin AOriginal demand, the key measure used to assess whether newly released supply is being absorbed, suggests that April opened on a weak footing. The metric measures the difference between the issuance of Bitcoin and the volume of coins that remain inactive for more than one year.
Recent data shows that apparent demand has fallen to negative 86,000 bitcoins, equivalent to about $5.95 billion at press time. This indicates that the newly supplied Bitcoin is not being absorbed sufficiently, reflecting weak market demand rather than strength.
There is currently a clear relationship between apparent demand and price action.
A persistent negative trend in demand usually corresponds to downward price pressure. It is worth noting that this represents the weakest reading in more than a month, which reinforces concerns about the underlying market structure.
Long-term holders are turning to distribution
Long-term bondholders contribute to this weakness. It appears that this group, which has historically been associated with accumulation and low selling activity, has now begun to distribute.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that the number of coin binary destroyed (CDD) days has reached 1. When this metric prints 1, it indicates that old coins are being transferred, an event typically associated with selling activity from long-term holders.
If this behavior continues, it may further impact the Bitcoin price outlook. In contrast, whales take the opposite position. Large holders have increased their presence in the market as Bitcoin attempts to recover.
Average spot order volume data shows that whales, especially larger entities, have dominated trading activity across major exchanges in recent sessions. Their orders account for a significant share of volume, making them major drivers of short-term momentum.
Given Bitcoin’s recent rebound, this activity suggests that whales have turned tactically bullish, at least over the past 48 hours.
Whale activity alone may not support this rise
However, relying on whale accumulation as an independent signal is still risky. Whales’ behavior is often reactive and can change quickly with market conditions.
I mentioned AMBCrypto previously In the first quarter, Bitcoin investors who owned between 100 and 10,000 BTC recorded combined losses of $30.9 billion, with whales accounting for an average daily loss of $337 million. This context underscores that large holders are not infallible, and that periods of accumulation do not always translate into sustainable upward trends.
With long-term holder distribution and apparent demand reflecting weak supply absorption, the current whale-driven momentum may lack the fundamental support required for a sustained rally.
Final summary
- Apparent demand for Bitcoin fell to negative 86,000 BTC, worth about $5.95 billion, indicating weak supply absorption.
- Long-term holders distribute while whales accumulate, leading to divergence in market behavior.
