Nvidia (NVDA) stock closed above $165 on March 30, down more than 9% since March 25. It now lies directly on the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern that predicts a measured breakdown of 11% if it fails.
The decline brought Nvidia stock to its most significant technical test since early 2026. Now, the daily chart, institutional flow data and options selection are pointing in different directions.
AI memory sale pushes Nvidia to the neckline
The catalyst behind 9% NVDA prices drop It is dated March 24th. That’s when Google announced TurboQuant, a memory compression algorithm that reduces an AI model’s memory requirements by 6 times without sacrificing performance.
The announcement sparked sharp selling across AI memory manufacturers. Micron shares fell about 20%, and SanDisk shares fell about 18% in the following days.
Reports indicate that OpenAI is cutting back on data center spending Worsening pressure. OpenAI’s October 2025 deal to secure 40% of the global supply of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) was a linchpin in the memory shortage thesis. Any retreat from this commitment weakens the outlook for demand for high-bandwidth memory, which directly feeds into Nvidia’s GPU production pipeline.
This combination pushed NVDA’s stock price to $165 by March 30.
The daily chart shows the damage structurally. The AI memory trajectory almost pushed NVDA stock beyond the head and shoulders neckline. If the neckline breaks, NVDA’s stock price could end up correcting another 11%, according to the target forecast. A downward sloping neckline makes it difficult to trigger a clean breakout because the price must continue falling to reach it, however NVDA is now inches away.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a proxy for institutional buying and selling pressure, adds nuance. The CMF attempted to exceed zero between March 10 and 16. That signaled a brief resurgence of institutional buying interest, but it failed and has since fallen to -0.24.
However, between February 5 and March 30, as stock prices trended lower, the CMF managed to maintain its rise.
This reading is just above -0.25. If the CMF drops below -0.25, it will confirm that institutional sellers are driving this move, and a neckline breakdown becomes significantly more likely.
The call/sell ratio shows that options traders are buying on the dip
While the price chart and money flow data point to weakness, Nvidia’s put-call ratio tells a contradictory story. On March 25, when the selloff began, the put volume ratio was 0.89, roughly balanced between bearish puts and bullish calls.
By March 30, the volume ratio had decreased by 16.8% to 0.74, meaning that call volume (bullish bets) expanded significantly compared to put volume as prices fell. The broader market may be eyeing upside targets for NVDA, Wall Street analysts have suggested.
UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri reiterated a buy rating on Nvidia shares with a $245 price target on March 20, implying a 48% upside. This call was issued five days before the start of the AI memory trail, and ongoing demand prices are driven by Rubin GPU shipments, treating memory supply disruptions as a short-term headwind rather than a structural shift.
A volume ratio of less than 0.80 on a stock that just fell more than 9% in five sessions is unusual. It indicates that options traders are using the decline to build bullish positions rather than hedging further downside.
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The open interest ratio, which reflects long-term positions, held steady at 0.89, meaning the current heavy book from the previous sell-off remains intact. The new activity is skewing to the upside, but the old selling rule has not been dismantled.
This divergence between falling prices and rising call activity is consistent with UBS’s institutional view and creates a setup where a confirmed bounce off the neckline could trigger a short squeeze in the options market. However, if the neckline is broken, buyers will face rapid losses, and unwinding may accelerate the move toward deeper price targets.
Key Nvidia stock price levels to watch
the Nvidia stock price It is now trading below all four major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are trend indicators that overweight recent prices to determine directional momentum.
The 20-day moving average is at $177, the 50-day and 100-day moving average are at $181, and the 200-day moving average is at $174. The bearish crossover between the 50-day and 100-day moving averages completed during the last week of March, adding longer-term headwinds. These headwinds appear to have played their part in driving the price correction in NVDA.
Key technical levels place the 0.618 level at $174, which is closely aligned with the 200-day moving average. The $173-$174 area becomes the crucial recovery target. A move back above $165 would neutralize the immediate threat to the neckline, while a recovery of $174 would put the price above the 200-day moving average and open the way towards $183 and $188. Beyond $188, the UBS analyst’s price target may look practical.
A daily close above $174 targets $183 and weakens the breakout thesis. Failure to reclaim $165 in subsequent trading sessions confirms the head and shoulders pattern and reveals a measured move of 11% towards $146.
this post AI Memory Wipe Wipes 9% of Nvidia Stock: Chart Shows More Pain Ahead appeared first on BeInCrypto.
