Bitcoin rose again to above $71,000 following news of a conditional ceasefire between the US and Iran linked to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin is bouncing back… for now
According to today’s QCP market colorAfter the ceasefire was announced, risk assets rose, stocks rose and the price of oil fell to its lowest levels of $90. However, the report warns that all this looks more like a temporary pause than a permanent solution. Let’s not forget that according to President Donald Trump himself, the ceasefire hinges on how Iran handles the Strait of Hormuz in the coming weeks.
🚨 President Donald J. Trump makes a statement on Iran: pic.twitter.com/9mqTayL0Q3
-The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 7, 2026
The attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure show how fragile de-escalation is.
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This recovery is supported by a repricing of risks, not condemnation. Depending on the color of the market, the overall picture remains mixed. US payrolls rebounded, but weak labor data kept the Fed juggling energy-driven growth and inflation fears. The upcoming inflation report (CPI) due this week may determine whether Bitcoin’s move back above $71,000 is sustainable or just a short-term bounce.
Options data from QCP shows compressed front end volumes, but negative skew remains in view. Demand for hedging remains strong. Noticeable interest on the calls is between $75,000 and $85,000, while support is between $60,000 and $65,000, making $74,000 a key breakout level.
Exchange Netflow shows why Bitcoin remains defensive
Despite the high prices… On-chain data from CryptoQuant It appears that exchange reserves remain high, indicating cautious sentiment rather than full accumulation.
A Novaque Research report from CryptoQuant shows that Binance currently holds approximately 637.6 thousand BTC in reserves, while Coinbase Advanced holds approximately 866.6 thousand BTC. Both remain well below their levels from earlier in 2025.
Bitcoin exchange reserve on Coinbase. Source: CryptoQuant.
According to the report, the division between exchanges is important. Coinbase is more closely linked to US institutional flows, while Binance better reflects global crypto liquidity. Coinbase’s reserves have remained tight and mostly sideways after a long downtrend, suggesting that big players are not keen on returning coins to the exchange to sell. Binance balances have rebounded more clearly, but are still below previous highs and below the 50-day moving average.
Bitcoin exchange reserve on Binance. Source: CryptoQuant.
These signals suggest that positioning is cautious rather than capitulatory: holders are cautious, but they are not acting as if they must get rid of Bitcoin at any cost.
CryptoQuant believes Exchange netflow supports this view. The overall net exchange inflow is slightly negative at around -289.6 BTC, and since February there has been a consistent trend toward outflows, sometimes punctuated by sharp spikes in deposits. The analysis shows that in the event of a true internal market collapse, you typically see sustained positive net inflows as investors move coins to platforms to sell them in a weakened state. Instead, the data still shows that Bitcoin was withdrawn from exchanges in several sessions.
Bitcoin exchange netflow on all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant.
This does not automatically mean a bullish outcome, but it highlights that Bitcoin is still supported by a holder base that is more inclined to remove supply rather than continue to cycle it back into the market.
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summary
Bitcoin’s defensive setup reflects institutional indecision. Traders may wait for a clear shift in macroeconomic or volatility before committing new capital.
The short-term rally depends on headlines, not fundamentals. Unless the ceasefire is maintained and inflation eases, Bitcoin may have difficulty breaking the $74,000 level convincingly.
For traders, this means tight ranges and tactics, and not full risk exposure, at least until the next macro signal.
Bitcoin bounced back and reclaimed $72k earlier today. At the moment of writing, BTC trades for the low $71ks on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.
Cover image by Perplexity. BTCUSD chart from Tradingview.
