Bitcoin (Bitcoin) to $45,000 by early October 2026, according to an analysis comparing the current market cycle to the failures of previous cryptocurrency exchanges.
These forecasts come as Bitcoin struggles to stay above the $65,000 level despite the recent recovery Spot ETFs flows and improve market sentiment.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $64,710, up about 0.9% over the past 24 hours. On the weekly time frame, the asset rose by 0.3%.
According to an analysis he conducted TradingShot Subscriber to A TradingView mail On July 24, the latest major development in the industry, the planned closure of BitMEX after 11 years of operation, resembled previous stock market crashes that occurred near major cycle lows.
The analysis indicates that large stock market failures occur frequently during bear market phases.
For example, the collapse of Mt Gox in 2014, BitGrail in 2018, and FTX in 2022 coincided with periods of extreme market stress. In each case, Bitcoin eventually established a major bottom before beginning a long-term rally.
The latest comparison focuses on the announced closure of BitMEX. TradingShot He argued that this event may indicate that the current market cycle is approaching a similar capitulation phase.
The analysis shows that Bitcoin is trading just above the buy zone at the historical real price, which is represented by a blue support band. Previous cycle lows formed in or near this area before significant rallies occurred.
Technical structure of Bitcoin
Another indicator is Bitcoin’s 100-month rally Moving average. The 2022 bear market bottom formed just above this level, and the current setup looks similar.
Based on these signals, the analysis expects the potential downside target to be $45,000 in early Q4 2026, with October emerging as a potential bottom period.
However, the bearish outlook belies improving institutional demand. US-based Bitcoin ETFs recently posted their strongest inflow streak in 2026, attracting nearly $1 billion and helping Bitcoin recover from lows near $58,000 earlier this month.
Bitcoin has since traded in the $64,000 to $66,000 range Investors Weighing ETF flows, macroeconomic trends, and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
Bitcoin price forecast in the short term
In the short term, analyst Ali Martinez, at X mail On July 25, the $63,800 level was highlighted as a crucial support level for Bitcoin on the four-hour chart.
According to the analysis, Bitcoin remains within an ascending channel and is currently testing the lower limit. If the support level remains at $63,800, Bitcoin could bounce towards $67,000, near the upper band of the channel.
However, a decisive break below this level would weaken the bullish structure and open the door for a move towards the $60,000 level, which is the next major downside target marked on the chart.
The setup indicates that while long-term analysts are monitoring a potential down cycle near $45,000 in early Q4 2026, traders remain focused on whether Bitcoin can defend the $63,800 support area in the coming days.
