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- Galaxy Research has cut the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year to 30% as bipartisan support remains uncertain.
- Senators released the first combined version of the bill, adding ethics rules, enforcement measures and changes to the GENIUS Act.
- Democratic negotiators said the proposal remains inadequate, leaving little time to secure the necessary votes before Congress recesses in August.
Galaxy research has been reduced The probability of the legislation passing in 2026 is estimated at 30%, down from 50% last month, citing shrinking legislative time, unresolved political disputes, and the increasing difficulty of counting votes in the Senate.
The consolidated draft brings together months of negotiations
The newly published 616-page proposal brings together cryptocurrency market structure legislation previously approved by the Senate Banking and Agriculture Committees into a single package. It also includes several negotiated additions, including a new ethics framework, expanded law enforcement provisions, and amendments to the recently approved GENIUS Act.
Among the most notable changes are restrictions preventing senior government officials and their spouses from issuing or custodial digital assets while in office, updated protections for software developers and self-custodial users, a dedicated framework for digital asset custodians and broader anti-fraud powers for federal and state agencies.
Clarity Act odds drop to 30% as Senate clock ticks
Seven Democratic senators involved in the negotiations — including Mark Warner, Cory Booker, Ruben Gallego, Raphael Warnock, Angela Albrooks, Katherine Cortez Masto, and John Hickenlooper — said the current proposal still lacks stronger protections for ethics, consumer safeguards, market integrity and illicit financing, while indicating they remain open to further negotiations.
Senator Elizabeth Warren separately criticized the legislation, saying it would make it easier for criminals and sanctioned actors to move money through the financial system while objecting to the bill’s ethics provisions.
Calendar pressures replace political debate
Even if negotiators reach a compromise, time becomes an equally important constraint.
Republicans officially control 53 seats in the Senate, but Galaxy Research estimates the party can currently count on roughly 50 votes to count, leaving leadership dependent on Democratic support to overcome the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.
Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged that the Senate is unlikely to complete work on all pending cryptocurrency legislation before lawmakers leave Washington, though leadership hopes to at least get started. Consider clarity. Analysts believe that the practical window to begin the legislative process is closing quickly as discussions, amendments and procedural votes must be completed before the August recess.
Narrow window for penetration
Supporters continue to describe CLARITY as the most comprehensive attempt yet to create a federal framework for digital asset markets, covering everything from market structure and stablecoins to custody and investor protection.
However, Congress is set to shift its focus to appropriations and election-related priorities after the August recess, and analysts warn that failure to advance the bill in the coming days could significantly reduce the chances of it becoming law this year. For now, publishing the combined text represents progress in the legislative process – but it does not guarantee that lawmakers will have the votes needed to finish it.
