Nokia stock closed at $9.73 on Thursday, down 5.35%, its lowest close since April 2026. The decline erased a Fibonacci golden sine of $0.618 at $10.41, extending a decline that began in early June.
The selling followed a second-quarter report that beat estimates but coupled accelerating demand for artificial intelligence with warnings about memory shortages. The Norwegian krone is now trading roughly 44% below its June high of $17.45.
Why are Nokia shares falling despite second-quarter earnings?
Nokia in the second quarter results It looked strong on paper. Comparable operating profits rose 18% year-on-year to €434 million, above analysts’ expectations of €382 million. Net sales amounted to 4.82 billion euros, up 9%.
Sales to AI and cloud customers doubled to €446 million, while new orders from this sector reached a record €2.8 billion. Nokia targeted this market yet strong Q1when spending on hyperscaler hardware lifted its optics business for the first time.
However, investors sold the forecast instead of the quarter. CEO Justin Hotard to caution The memory shortage could last until 2027, as AI companies absorb the industry’s supply of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) and drive component prices higher.
“That’s probably the thing that we see as the most important,” Hotard said of memory limitations during earnings Calls.
At the same time, the weakness of the legacy remains. Fixed network revenue fell 13% as telecom operators postponed spending, and Nokia expected third-quarter operating profit to be broadly flat compared to the second quarter.
The sector’s backdrop made matters worse. Ericsson It fell nearly 12% on July 14 after signaling the same inflation in the cost of memory, dragging down its telecom equipment counterparts. Cracks in memory Stocks and broader AI Take profits It added pressure to a stock that was still up nearly 85% for the year through mid-July.
Norwegian Krone price analysis shows that the golden pocket is heading towards resistance
On the daily chart, Nokia stock has been declining since June 3. The Fibonacci retracement plotted from the January low of $6.06 to the June high of $17.45 now maps the decline.
The Norwegian krone first lost the 0.382 level at $13.10 in early July. More importantly, this week it fell below the golden pocket, which is the 0.618 retracement level at $10.41. That area served as support in April, and its loss suggests that it may now act as resistance.
The spike in volume during the recent decline is important. It indicates conviction behind the selling, favoring a continuation of the downtrend.
The next target is at the 0.786 retracement level at $8.50, about 12.6% below Thursday’s close. This level also corresponds to the consolidation zone from March and April, which may consolidate it as a demand zone. In contrast, a daily close above $10.41 would invalidate the bearish outlook.
Nokia’s RSI confirms breakout as momentum turns to the downside
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) tells a similar story. Nokia’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) respected an ascending support line as of November 2025, successfully testing it three times, in February and twice in June.
The index lost this line in late June. Moreover, the July bounce was rejected precisely on the downside, confirming old support as new resistance. The price and RSI have fallen sharply since the rejection.
The RSI now reads near 32, just above the oversold threshold of 30. A drop below 30 could trigger a short-term bounce, similar to the other oversold names in the last slide. defeat. However, the momentum structure remains bearish while the broken trend line is recovering.
Currently, the path of least resistance points towards the $8.50 level. Easing memory costs or strong delivery in the second half could revive the AI growth story, but a breakdown below $8.50 would expose the $6.06 low.
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