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Today’s coverage takes a capital assessment In reality It’s gone as we move through the end of the year. First, we start with index readings that show a continued shift to a large, proven crypto infrastructure while speculative sectors continue to decline. We then measure the damage across 2025 token launches.
Indicators
Bitcoin was essentially flat over the past week (+0.3%), underperforming traditional benchmarks – NASDAQ (+1.7%), gold (+1.1%), and S&P 500 (+0.9%). Variation accelerated around mid-week around December 18, when most crypto sectors sold off sharply while stocks remained flat, suggesting a risk-off move for crypto rather than broader overall weakness.
DEX exchanges (+11%) led all indices, followed by crypto mining companies (+9.5%) and the 2025 Crypto Stocks Group (+9.2%). DEX’s outperformance was driven by UNI rising 15.4%, after Unification vote Live on-chain, with 69 million UNI (quorum 40 million) voting yes. L1s (-2%) and Exchange Tokens (-2.2%) posted modest losses.
AI was the worst performing sector (-21%), largely driven by TAO (-21%). TAO’s weakness likely reflects a decline in news selling around Bittensor’s first halving (around December 14), which halved daily issuance but did not immediately translate into increased demand, coupled with broader de-risking across the AI token pool.
Negative returns on new tokens
As the end of the year approaches, it’s worth focusing on the worst bar of 2025: the launch of new tokens. Modern Posted by Ahboyash He put up hard numbers beyond what many felt intuitively. Across 117 tokens launched in 2025, returns were extremely negative. The token fell approximately 71% against its fully diluted valuation (FDV). Only 17/117 (15%) are trading above their launch valuation, while nearly 40% are down more than 80%.
The downside is widespread and severe: 100/117 tokens (85%) are located underwater. Losses cluster most dramatically in the 50-90% drawdown range, which accounts for the largest share of launches.
Ultimately, 15 coins fell more than 90%, including high-profile launches like Berachin (-93%), Animecoin (-94%), and Bio Protocol (-93%).
In total, the group’s total FDV value has fallen from $139 billion at listing to $54 billion today, implying approximately $87 billion (59%) of “paper” FDV destruction, excluding any projects that actually reach zero.
The scattering on the right tail is real, but concentrated. The worst performing coins are moving towards infrastructure and gaming, with Syndicate (-93.6%) and Animecoin (-93.6%) among the laggards. Meanwhile, notable winners are largely later stage H2 launches with lower starting valuations, including Aster (+745%), Yoldo Games (+538%), and Humanity (+323%).
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