A US official described Iran’s latest response as a negotiating tactic, hinting that Trump might delay proceedings if a deal appears possible. The odds of a ceasefire by April 7 fell to 1.1% yes, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Market reaction remains weak, with odds on April 7 approaching zero. the April 15 market Interest rates reached 6.5% yes, down from 8% yesterday, showing doubts about a quick solution. the April 30 market At 17.5% Yes saw a slight rise, suggesting that some traders see a potential advance by then.
The biggest jump in odds occurred between April 30 and May 31, rising from 18% to 36%, indicating that traders are anticipating any major diplomatic movement in May. The current trading volume is $431,402 in USDC across these markets in the last 24 hours. The depth of the order book varies, with $40,093 needed to move the April 15 price by 5 pips, indicating strong resistance.
Despite the official’s comments, the market remains bearish with an immediate advance. Traders are wary of data coming from a social media source with level 2 reliability. With the YES share price reaching 1.1 cents on April 7, the return is high, but the risk is also high, requiring belief in a diplomatic breakthrough soon – a difficult prospect given the current situation.
Keep an eye on any official announcements from Trump or brokers like Oman or Qatar. A formal conversation schedule or toned-down rhetoric can dramatically change the odds. Updates from the Pentagon or US Central Command could also provide clarity.
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