Bitcoin price The market has seen an impressive rebound in recent sessions, supported by renewed spot ETF inflows, improving macroeconomic sentiment, and rising institutional participation. The rebound has restored optimism throughout the cryptocurrency market, with traders increasingly anticipating that the next bull cycle may already be underway. However, new on-chain data paints a more measured picture.
While many indicators are improving, they have not yet reached levels historically associated with the beginning of a sustained bull market, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price recovery may still be in its early stages.
Three metrics could determine what’s next for Bitcoin
The improving Bitcoin price movement has increased speculation that the market is entering a new bull cycle. However, new analysis from CryptoQuant suggests that institutional investors may want to temper expectations. According to on-chain data, three widely followed on-chain indicators show meaningful improvement, but none of them have reached the thresholds that historically mark the beginning of Bitcoin’s strongest bull markets.
The first is virtual demand, which is a metric that tracks whether new capital enters the Bitcoin network. While demand has rebounded sharply after the severe contraction seen earlier this year, it remains below neutral territory, indicating that institutional and retail flows have not yet fully returned.
Another closely watched indicator, the adjusted SOPR, has recovered toward the critical 1.0 level, indicating that long-term bondholders are no longer resigned to losing ground. However, the gauge has struggled to achieve sustained movement above this threshold, suggesting that investor sentiment is still in a rebuilding phase rather than an expansion phase.
Meanwhile, Net Realized P&L (NRPL) turned positive after months of sustained losses, reflecting better market sentiment as investors gradually return to their profitable positions. However, historically, strong bull cycles have been accompanied by much higher realized profits, suggesting that today’s recovery has not yet reached the level of widespread participation seen in previous market expansions.
Collectively, these metrics indicate that Bitcoin has likely passed the weakest phase of its correction. However, the data points to a market turning to recovery, rather than a market that has finally entered a full-fledged bull market.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Will BTC surpass $70,000?
Bitcoin continues to build a constructive recovery after defending the $60,000 demand zone earlier this month. The recent rally produced a series of higher lows, allowing BTC price to reclaim the short-term moving averages while steadily approaching the key resistance range between $67,500 and $68,500. This area is consistent with previous distribution levels and represents the next important hurdle for buyers.
A decisive break above this resistance would negate the recent higher lower structure and could accelerate momentum towards the $72,000 area initially, with $78,000-$82,000 emerging as the next major upside target if buying pressure continues to strengthen. Conversely, failure to overcome resistance could lead to another period of consolidation, with $63,000-$60,000 remaining the key support area that the bulls must defend to maintain the current recovery structure.
What’s next for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin’s improving price action is increasingly supported by healthier on-chain fundamentals, indicating that confidence is gradually returning to the market. However, the data also suggest that the recovery remains incomplete. Demand is rebuilding, profit making is improving, and selling pressures are easing, but the network has not yet reached the levels of participation that typically define the early stages of a full-fledged bull market.
If chain strength continues to improve along with a breakout above key resistance, Bitcoin could be positioned for the next rally. Until then, the recent recovery looks encouraging, but not yet final.
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