West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $82.48higher $0.70 or 0.85%After another volatile day of trading driven by shifting geopolitical headlines. The session was characterized by a wide trading range, with prices rising to the highest level $84.60 Before it fell to its lowest level during the day $79.58. This sharp decline came in the wake of reports indicating that A Ceasefire for 10 days This can be agreed upon and shipped through Strait of Hormuz May resume without interruption. Since the strait is one of the world’s most important oil transit routes, the news briefly eased concerns about potential supply disruptions and sparked a wave of strong selling.
However, this bearish reaction proved short-lived. As traders begin to question the sustainability of any ceasefire agreement and renewed geopolitical risks arise – including strong rhetoric from Washington and Tehran, reports of more US military planning, and reported bombings in several Middle Eastern countries. The price started to rebound. The recovery was rapid, completely erasing the post-headline decline and pushing crude oil steadily higher through the remainder of the North American session. By the close, prices had not only recovered all their losses, but were firmly in positive territory, underscoring the market’s continued sensitivity to supply risks in the Middle East.
The technical picture also improved significantly during the recovery period. On the hourly chart, ceasefire headlines briefly pushed the price below its high 100 hour moving averageThis gives sellers an opportunity to take control in the short term. They couldn’t take advantage. Instead, buyers quickly reclaimed this moving average, turning what initially looked like a bearish technical breakout into another failed bearish attempt. Once back above the moving average, the momentum shifted decisively in favor of the bulls.
Just as importantly, crude oil spent most of the following time The 45-hour trade was above last Tuesday’s high of $81.25. This former resistance level has now become an important support area. The ability to stay above this level suggests that buyers are willing to defend higher prices rather than just chasing short-term rallies. As long as the market continues to hold above this level, the near-term technical trend remains inclined to the upside.
The recovery also led to prices returning above the level 50% bounce From the decline from the high of June 3, which is the key technical level that comes at $82.01. Midpoint retracement levels often act as important dividing lines between bullish and bearish momentum. Closing the day above this level is a constructive technical development because it indicates that buyers have regained control after what initially appeared to be a major reversal lower. Hold above $82.01 It will now be an important test for the bulls. If buyers can continue to defend this level, traders will likely look for a retest today $84.60 High resistance and perhaps even higher after that. On the contrary, back to the bottom $82.01 That would weaken the improving technical picture and increase the risk of another test of support in the Eurozone $81.25 Area and climb 100 hour moving average.
