Solana (SOL) is trading just above $82 at the time of writing on Monday, marking the fourth straight day of recovery. While funding rates for SOL futures have risen, the concurrent decline in open interest suggests that sentiment remains divided. From a technical perspective, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $88.80 stands out as a key resistance level to watch.
Derivatives indicate optimism, but participation is declining
Market data suggests bullish positions among traders are rising, even as overall participation in SOL futures contracts declines. According to CoinGlass, the weighted funding rate for OI rose to 0.0067% from 0.0042% on Sunday, suggesting that long position traders are willing to pay a premium – typically a sign of growing confidence in further upside.
However, this optimism is not fully supported by market activity. Open interest in SOL futures fell to $4.97 billion from $5.07 billion on Friday, indicating a decline in total capital committed to the market. This divergence – higher funding rates coupled with lower open interest – highlights mixed sentiment, as there is a bullish bias but conviction appears limited.
Institutional demand remains weak
On the institutional side, demand for Solana continues to show weakness. Data from Sosovalue reveals that SOL-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted net weekly outflows of $5.24 million, marking the second straight week of withdrawals. If this trend continues, it could represent the longest series of weekly outflows to date, which could add downward pressure on the SOL spot price in the near term.
Will Solana extend recovery to $93?
The SOL/USD 4-hour chart is bullish and inactive, as the currency has risen by approximately 4% in the past 24 hours. At press time, SOL is trading at $82.50 per coin.
The near-term bias is mixed as SOL settles below the 50-day and 100-day EMAs, maintaining a broader corrective structure.
Momentum indicators have also turned to the upside, with more gains in the near term. The Moving Average Convergence-Convergence (MACD) line remains above its signal line, indicating continued buying pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 60 above the neutral 50 level, indicating increasing upward momentum.
If the rally continues, Cardano will face immediate resistance at the 50-day EMA near $88.81, which is capping the upside and guarding a stronger move towards $98.02, near the 100-day EMA at $102.18.
However, if sellers regain control, the support zone between $75.63 and $77.60 could serve as a rebound point. Extended selling pressure would highlight the February 6 low of $67.50.
