Key takeaways
- Cardano (ADA) traded near $0.161 on Thursday after a slight pullback, while whale wallets continued to accumulate tokens.
- Portfolios containing 100,000-100 million ADA reached their highest levels of holdings since February 2023, while smaller investors reduced their exposure.
- Van Rossem’s upcoming hard fork, scheduled for Saturday, could serve as a catalyst for ADA’s next move.
Cardano (ADA) fell on Thursday, trading around $0.161 after facing mild selling pressure in the previous session.
Despite the decline, on-chain and derivatives data suggest that investor sentiment is gradually improving as large holders continue to accumulate the cryptocurrency ahead of the mainnet upgrade.
The combination of increased whale activity, strengthening derivatives metrics, and Van Rossem’s upcoming hard fork has heightened expectations that ADA could stage a broader recovery if it breaks key resistance levels.
Whales continue to accumulate ADA
On-chain data from Santiment shows a clear difference between large and small Cardano holders.
Wallets with between 100,000 and 100 million ADA now collectively hold more than 25.65 billion ADA, the highest level since February 2023.
In contrast, portfolios with fewer than 100 ADA have reduced their holdings by approximately 0.7% over the past four months.
This trend indicates that institutional and high net worth investors continue to accumulate Cardano while retail investors remain cautious. Historically, continued accumulation of whales is often preceded by periods of strong price performance.
Cardano’s development roadmap also received a boost this week. Intersect, the member-based organization that supports the Cardano ecosystem, confirmed on Wednesday that the Van Rossem hard fork will be activated on Saturday after governance was ratified earlier this week.
The upgrade introduces new Plutus functionality along with protocol improvements designed to improve smart contract performance, developer capabilities, and overall network efficiency.
A hard fork could provide a near-term stimulus by strengthening the Cardano ecosystem and increasing confidence among developers and investors.
Futures market activity also indicates strengthening investor confidence.
According to CoinGlass, Cardano futures open interest (OI) It rose from about $422 million on Monday to $445 million on Thursday.
Rising open interest combined with stable prices generally indicates new capital entering the market rather than traders simply closing existing positions.
Meanwhile, the ADA funding rate turned positive, reaching 0.0042%, indicating that traders holding long positions are once again willing to pay a premium to maintain their exposure.
Positive financing rates typically reflect improving market sentiment and increasing expectations of higher prices.
Cardano Price Forecast: ADA still faces significant resistance
Although the fundamentals have improved, Cardano is still technically constrained. ADA continues to trade below several key moving averages, maintaining the broader bearish market structure.
Cardano remains below the 50-day EMA (0.179 USD), the 100-day EMA (0.208 USD), and the 200-day EMA (0.276 USD).
The symbol is also trading below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.173, while the broader downtrend remains intact below trendline resistance near $0.207.
Momentum indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 46, indicating neutral momentum without indicating overbought or oversold conditions.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned slightly positive, indicating a decline in bearish momentum, although buying pressure is still too weak to confirm an ongoing trend reversal.
If the bulls regain momentum, the next resistance levels include $0.179 (50-day EMA), $0.207-$0.208 (trendline resistance and 100-day EMA), and $0.2135 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
A successful breakout above the $0.207-$0.208 area would significantly improve Cardano’s medium-term outlook.
On the downside, traders should keep an eye on the immediate support level at $0.1500. Failure to defend this level could lead to ADA retesting the June 25 swing low at $0.1382.
Cardano’s improving fundamentals are beginning to contradict its still cautious technical image. Whale accumulation, rising open interest and positive funding rates suggest confidence is gradually returning, while Van Rossem’s upcoming hard fork provides an additional potential catalyst.
