The headline comes from a statement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman that Tehran has formulated its diplomatic response to the United States but will not announce it until the appropriate time. We’ll have to wait and see, but there’s been a mixed reception to all the major rumor mills of the past 24 hours.
For now, markets remain a bit more optimistic. The dollar fell across the board in the absence of European traders, while US futures rose during the day. EUR/USD rose 0.4% to 1.1555 while S&P 500 futures are up 0.4% on the day now. This is with oil prices rising, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling from a high of $114 in Asia to levels of $109 now.
Although financial markets are optimistic, betting markets are not convinced. The chances of reaching peace or a real ceasefire before the end of April currently remain less than 30%.
However, the 29% figure is still at least higher than the 18% odds set for the weekend. So make of it whatever you want.
