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Ahmed Barakat
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The June CPI fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.4% month-on-month, the largest monthly decline since April 2020, pushing the annual inflation rate to 3.5% versus the Dow Jones consensus of 3.8%, and Bitcoin responded with an immediate push higher after the print. The data win is real.
The energy index fell 5.7% in June, with gasoline and fuel oil down more than 9%, accounting for the bulk of the monthly swing. If we exclude that, the picture becomes much less clear: the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat month-on-month at an annual rate of 2.6% versus expectations of 2.9%. Services excluding energy were flat. Shelter rose 0.1%. Transportation services decreased by 0.3%.
This distinction is directly related to Fed policy, because policymakers target core inflation and services inflation as the long-term signal. The gasoline-driven headline doesn’t move that needle, private market rate Pricing reflects that.
As of now, the Fed is widely expected to hold its FOMC meeting on July 28-29 and then raise interest rates by 25 basis points in September, keeping the overnight rate at 3.5%-3.75% for now before raising it.
This tone reinforces what the market is already pricing. The path of interest rates stays higher for longer until fundamental and services data show a compelling trend, not just an artifact of one-month energy.
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CPI positioning and Bitcoin ETF flow background
Bitcoin entered Tuesday’s print run with strong momentum recently, as traders watch whether inflation data can change the Fed’s course quickly enough to maintain risk appetite.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market comments ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release pointed to the influx of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and on-chain developments as supportive backdrops to the move. Pre-CPI analysis also suggests that bullish positions may be weak if macro expectations change.
The sign of caution comes from a derivatives standpoint: positioning could be quickly undone when macro expectations are repriced, even if the headline print looks constructive for cryptocurrencies at the moment.
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Key levels and future state of bulls and bears
Traders are focusing on nearby resistance at $64,000, while technical desks are keeping an eye on a series of higher targets if momentum continues after the CPI-driven rally.
On the downside, $62,000 is a key reference point for risk. Below that, traders expect attention to shift to previous support levels, including around $60,000. Altcoins have their own levels that are being closely watched as well, with ETH’s recent resistance area around $1,800 in focus following the June sell-off.
Thomas Perfumo, chief economist at Kraken, put the macro reading precisely:
“Reading today carefully is more cause for cautious optimism than cause for concern,” he said, adding that “the broader inflationary impulse is tapering.” The future scenario he described, inflation continuing to slow in the second half of 2026, and maintaining “policy options for central banks” is the bullish argument for risk assets.
But this scenario would require several more months of data to confirm this trend. Exchange backup data and metrics on-chain Structural setup supported, but energy-based CPI reading does not resolve Fed September calculations.
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