Analysis by TradingShot You have identified a potential Bitcoin (Bitcoin) a buy zone between $ 50,000 and $ 40,000, arguing that Cryptocurrency It is approaching a league bottom that could be reached in the first week of October 2026.
In a TradingView mail Published on July 13, the analyst highlighted that Bitcoin has spent the past six weeks consolidating after a sharp decline in May, describing the current price action as the final consolidation phase before a deeper correction forms the next major cycle low.
With Bitcoin trading near $63,000 at the time of analysis, forecasts point to a potential decline of approximately 20% to 36% before the asset enters the expected accumulation range.
TradingShot’s The forecast is based on Bitcoin’s four-year historical cycle structure. The analyst noted that the previous major cycle lows were separated by about 1,428 days, or 204 weeks, a pattern that is frequently consistent with large market lows.
Historical context of Bitcoin
The analysis identified similar formations after the bear market bottoms of 2014, 2018 and 2022.
In each case, Bitcoin experienced a final corrective phase before entering what the analyst calls the Real Price Buy Zone (RPBZ) and thus beginning a new long-term bull cycle.
Applying the same timing model to the current market cycle suggests that Bitcoin’s next technical bottom could appear around the first week of October 2026.
According to the analysis, the broader realized price buy zone is currently between $50,000 and $40,000. The model then predicts a recovery phase that could eventually push Bitcoin back above $100,000, mirroring the rebound patterns seen after the previous cycle lows.
Expectations suggest that Bitcoin may not have completed its correction despite the recent consolidation around the $63,000 level.
Alternatively, the current range-bound trade could represent a pause before an eventual capitulation move into the historically significant buy zone.
Key Bitcoin price levels to watch
At the same time, separate analysis Ali Martinez noted on July 13 that Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness after being rejected near the top of a short-term trading channel, raising the possibility of a move towards the lower bound around $61,700.
Bitcoin was rejected near the upper resistance area at $64,500, and fell below the channel’s middle range around $63,000, indicating growing bearish pressure. The decline briefly pushed Bitcoin toward $62,300 before it rebounded to roughly $63,115, though the asset remained below a key medium-term level.
According to the analysis, a loss of $63,000 increases the risk of a move towards the lower limit of the channel near $61,700, a level that could provide support.
To regain momentum, the bulls will need to reclaim the middle range and push Bitcoin back towards $63,700. Until then, traders will be watching whether the $61,700 support area can hold.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $62,799, down about 2% over the past 24 hours. However, on the weekly time frame, Bitcoin remained 1.7% higher.
