US Secretary of State Marco Rubio set a framework of action aimed at ending hostilities and restoring stability in Lebanon. The proposal attempts to balance Israel’s security concerns and Lebanon’s sovereignty while addressing the long-term issue of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.
Rubio said:
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This framework establishes a clear and organized process to restore Lebanon’s sovereignty, disarm Hezbollah, and dismantle its military infrastructure.
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The agreement would enable Israel to return to its borders once the threat to its citizens is removed.
- The agreement establishes a tripartite military coordination group for Lebanese facilities by the United States
- The United States will remain fully engaged and committed to providing significant resources, including $100 million in immediate humanitarian assistance in coordination with the United Nations.
- The Ministry of War is prepared to compensate the Lebanese Army with more than $30 million in accordance with existing authorities and allocations
The Lebanese Prime Minister says that Lebanon’s obligation under the framework is to extend state authority through the armed forces over all territories.
Why does the frame matter?
This proposal is one of the clearest indications so far that Washington is trying to engineer a broader security arrangement between:
- IsraelWhich insists on the necessity of dismantling Hezbollah’s military capabilities near its northern borders before it can withdraw completely.
- LebanonWhich seeks to restore full sovereignty and avoid another devastating conflict.
- USWhich attempts to broker a permanent security arrangement while reducing the risk of a broader regional war.
- Iranthe main backer of Hezbollah, and whose influence on the group’s military and political decision-making remains a central issue.
The biggest obstacle to any agreement remains Hezbollah itself.
In its recent statements, Hezbollah’s leadership explained the following:
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The group does Its weapons are not considered negotiable Lack of broader guarantees.
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Hezbollah says its armed presence remains necessary as a “resistance” force against Israel.
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The organization has indicated that it will not accept arrangements that it considers tantamount to surrender or disarmament imposed from abroad.
This creates a direct conflict with Rubio’s framework, which explicitly calls for:
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Restoring the authority of the Lebanese state.
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Dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.
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The organization was eventually disarmed.
Israel’s fears
From Israel’s point of view, any agreement must ensure the following:
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Hezbollah fighters and weapons are being removed from areas near the border.
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Eliminate missile and drone threats against northern Israeli communities.
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Security guarantees are enforceable and are not just a temporary ceasefire.
Israel’s experience following previous agreements, including implementation challenges surrounding UN Resolution 1701 after the 2006 war, has left policymakers skeptical of arrangements that lack robust implementation mechanisms.
Iran’s role
Iranian influence increases the complexity of negotiations.
Tehran views Hezbollah as follows:
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A strategic deterrent against Israel.
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A critical element of the regional security architecture.
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An important source of influence in the Levant.
As a result, any effort to dismantle Hezbollah’s military capabilities could be viewed in Tehran as a reduction in Iranian regional influence, making a negotiated settlement considerably more difficult.
There are a lot of dots to connect with any number of actors causing the peace to collapse
What started with the United States and Israel against Iran, turned into Israel against Hezbollah, Israel against Lebanon, the United States against Lebanon, Iran against the United States and Israel, Hezbollah against Lebanon.
