Iran published footage of Operation True Promise 4 and threatened to target Zionist embassies if they were attacked. The probability that the Iranian regime will fall by June 30 is 14%, yes, compared to 12% yesterday but down from 20% a week ago.
The footage and threats highlight Iran’s military capability and leadership stability. the June 30 market It shows a slight increase but is still lower than last week. With 88 days to go, the week’s significant decline suggests that traders are reassessing expectations for the stability of the regime under Mojtaba Khamenei.
Trading volume is $59,602 in USDC per day, with $195,747 required to shift the odds by 5 pips. This indicates a well-capitalized market that is resistant to rapid fluctuations from small trades. The biggest recent price movement was a modest 1-pip rise at 7:21 p.m.
Iranian military actions and threats to expand targets beyond military sites support the perception of regime cohesion. A YES share at 14 cents pays $1 if the system falls by June 30 – a potential 7x return. Traders betting on the collapse of the regime should expect major internal divisions or international intervention within the next three months.
Stay tuned to the movements of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the statements of the Assembly of Experts. Any sign of internal dissent or unexpected public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei could change the odds dramatically.
Affected markets
Get predictive market information as a structured API feed. Early access waiting list.
