Key takeaways
- Bitcoin remains vulnerable as tight Federal Reserve guidance, rising Treasury yields, and inconsistent demand for ETFs continue to dampen investor sentiment.
- With BTC trading below the major moving averages and lacking strong buying momentum, the near-term bias remains bearish.
Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure on Thursday, trading below the $64,000 level as investors reacted to a hawkish message from the US Federal Reserve and mixed institutional demand signals.
The leading cryptocurrency continues to struggle for momentum, with risk appetite fading in financial markets after the Federal Reserve signaled a tougher policy outlook despite leaving interest rates unchanged.
The Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates but adopting a hawkish tone
The US Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% during its latest policy meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh.
While the decision itself was widely expected, markets focused on the Fed’s future guidance and updated economic forecasts.
The central bank removed language suggesting a bias toward further monetary easing and instead signaled its support for keeping interest rates high for longer. Policymakers now expect the federal funds rate to reach 3.8% at the end of the year, up from the 3.4% forecast issued in March.
The revised forecast has prompted traders to increase their expectations for monetary policy tightening, with markets now anticipating a roughly 85% chance of a rate hike in December.
As a result, US Treasury yields and the US dollar rose, reducing demand for risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains mixed, offering little support for a sustainable recovery.
according to Queen Glass According to the data, bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net outflow of $82.20 million on Wednesday, as follows:
The inconsistent flow pattern, coupled with a slight bearish bias, suggests that institutional investors remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
If ETF outflows continue or accelerate in the coming sessions, Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: Relief Bounce Shows Signs of Weakness
Recent price action suggests that Bitcoin’s recovery from oversold conditions may have been driven more by seller fatigue than renewed buying demand.
Bitcoin continues to trade within a short-term bearish structure and remains below several key moving averages.
BTC is currently trading below its 50-day moving average at $70,042, its 100-day moving average at $72,839, and its 200-day moving average at $78,174.
Failure to reclaim these levels reinforces the broader downtrend and highlights ongoing general selling pressure.
Additionally, the previously broken uptrend support near $73,833 has now turned into a major resistance area.
Technical indicators continue to favor caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart remains below the 50 level, indicating continued bearish momentum without yet reaching deep oversold conditions.
The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive, suggesting that the recent rallies may be corrective moves within a broader downtrend rather than the beginning of a sustained recovery.
If Bitcoin attempts a bounce, traders will likely focus on several key resistance areas. First major resistance at $64,004 could pave the way for higher hurdles at $70,042 – 50-day moving average
A move above these levels will be required to significantly improve the technical outlook.
