Markets:
- Gold fell $49 to $4,160
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 94 cents to $77.54
- US markets are closed
- S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%
- The Japanese yen is advancing, and the Canadian dollar is lagging
The US was on holiday on Friday and market movement was limited to close out the week. But there was news when Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire. The market viewed this as good news at first, with the price of oil falling by more than one dollar, but these movements slowly declined as the fighting in southern Lebanon continued unabated. At the time of writing, there are reports of ongoing bombing, so it’s worth a look over the weekend. Other reports continue to say that Iran is not happy, and Trump said in an interview with NBC that Israel needs to give the ceasefire a chance.
Overall, the US dollar fell in North American trade but one of the broad trends was the Canadian dollar. Friday’s retail sales number looked good on the headlines but beneath the surface, core sales were down 0.7% month-on-month and all of the increase in headline sales was on gasoline due to higher prices. The USD/CAD pair rose to its highest levels since November.
Gold tried to rebound early in US trading but after a quick $30 rally, it slowly faded away before finding a foothold at current levels. This will be an area to watch next week as the bulls struggle to put up a defense.
Overall, it was a strange end to the week as the bond market priced in a more hawkish Fed but most other markets ignored the shift. Maybe this will resolve itself next week or maybe the excitement in AI will continue.
Have a wonderful weekend.
