SpaceX (SPCX) shares are down 18% from their post-IPO peak, and the average investor who bought on the open market is now nearing breakeven, raising the question of whether the historic debut has already peaked.
Shares closed Thursday at $184.98, down 3.6% on the day. According to CNBC, the stock’s five-day volume-weighted average price was $181.71, a closely watched measure of where a typical buyer is after its debut. This slim margin above cost basis represents a sharp reversal from Tuesday’s intraday high above $225.
From $3 trillion to seventh place
The two-day slide has erased Nearly $620 billion in market cap, raising SpaceX’s valuation from about $3 trillion to $2.37 trillion. The company, which briefly held fourth place globally ahead of Amazon and Microsoft, has since fallen to a lower low Seventh placeand competes closely with TSMC.
This was prompted by SpaceX’s June 16 announcement that it was doing so Get Anyspherethe company behind the AI encryption tool Cursor, for $60 billion in an all-stock deal. The deal carries a roughly 3.4% dilution to SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion IPO valuation.
Morningstar He responded By lowering the fair value estimate to $62 from $63, noting that the deal adds dilution to the stock on top of stock that was already reported as significantly overvalued. The company’s best-case scenario puts the fair value at $169, below where the stock is currently trading.
The retail craze is cooling fast
The speed of the reversal underscores how the initial rally was driven by sentiment. Vanda Research Data It showed that retail investors pumped $369.8 million into SPCX during its first three sessions, more than four times the amount flowing to Nvidia during the same period. This pace slowed sharply by Thursday, June 18, with net retail purchases cooling to $9.1 million by mid-afternoon.
Individual investors who received their $135 IPO allotments through platforms like Robinhood, Fidelity, and SoFi still kept their gains, though many only received a fraction of the shares they requested. Those who chased the stock higher in the open market are now sitting on paper losses. Like BeInCrypto Reported before the dropthe smart money in the perpetual market was already in a position to correct.
Not everyone is bearish. Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan Raised its target price to $250 after the Cursor deal, arguing that the acquisition gives SpaceX access to AI talent, training data and an established developer user base.
However, with a lock-in period approaching expiration in late July that could double its tradable float, and a potential $20 billion bond sale tied to xAI financing, supply-side pressure on SPCX is set to grow.
Whether this is a healthy correction or the beginning of a longer period Relaxation after IPO That may hinge on SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company, due in late July.
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