Three reasons not to go after SpaceX…and what to do instead

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Editor’s note: SpaceX is finally public. The FOMO situation has already been building. But before you buy, Louis Navellier — who has been investing in big technology cycles for nearly five decades — wants you to ask one question: Can you tolerate volatility?

In today’s article, Lewis explains three reasons why he’s not buying SpaceX right now, even though he thinks it’s a great company. It’s a masterclass in the difference between a great business and a great entry point—and a timely reminder that the best investors don’t just know what they’re buying. They know when.

He and Want Smith CEO Keith Kaplan I recently sat down to talk about all of it — including two free stock picks for next summer. Watch the replay here.

Now here’s Louis.

In 2017, legendary billionaire investor Ron Baron made a big bet.

His company invested in SpaceX (Spex) when the company’s value was less than $22 billion.

Now that SpaceX has gone public, this bet could be considered one of the greatest investments in history. So, let’s give credit where credit is due.

But folks, before you consider buying SpaceX stock, you should consider your risk tolerance and ask yourselves:

How much risk can you take?

A billionaire like Barron could make a huge, focused bet on Elon Musk. He can wait years for it to bear fruit. He can ride ups and downs. He can be early and patient.

Most investors can’t do any of these things.

And that’s the real lesson I want you to think about when SpaceX goes public.

So, let’s talk about how investors are treating SpaceX now that it’s a public company and the three reasons why I don’t recommend buying SpaceX stock right now… and a new tool that can help you time the market better and make bigger gains — so you don’t have to ride an emotional roller coaster on your way to profits.

Reason #1: Big companies make bad IPO buys – just ask Facebook

Now, let me first say that I think SpaceX is a great company. Starlink makes money. SpaceX makes money. But a great company can still be a risky stock if you buy it at the wrong price, at the wrong time.

Case in point: Facebook, now known as Meta Platforms, Inc. (dead).

Facebook went public on May 18, 2012. At the time, it was one of the most anticipated IPOs Wall Street had seen in years. Investors were clamoring to get in. The stock price was $38.

The FOMO was real. Then reality set in. By August 2012, Facebook’s price had fallen to about $17.50. That was a loss of more than 50% of the IPO price.

Now, Facebook is finally a massive long-term winner, up more than 1,300% since it first went public. But investors who chased the IPO were taken to the woodshed.

This was not an isolated case either. Amazon.com, Inc. (Amzn) became one of the greatest stocks of all time — but it first fell more than 90% from its dot-com peak. Alphabet company (Google), then Google, which achieved a huge win – but only after testing investors’ patience with sharp declines.

Bottom line: Great stocks don’t move in a straight line.

That’s why I have a simple rule when it comes to IPOs. I usually wait at least a year before I buy.

This may sound boring when everyone is talking about a stock that can rise on its first day of trading. But I’ve been doing this for nearly five decades, and I’ve learned that the best time to buy a great company isn’t always the first time Wall Street lets you buy it.

When a company goes public, there is usually a lock-in period for insiders. They cannot sell their shares immediately. But once this ban ends, a lot of stocks could come into the market, creating selling pressure.

We saw something similar recently with another space-related stock, Rocket Lab Company (He rode). As excitement around SpaceX grows, many Rocket Lab insiders have been cashing in. So don’t be surprised if some SpaceX insiders eventually sell after their embargo period ends.

Reason #2: You can’t classify what you can’t see yet

The second reason I’m waiting is to see the data.

After the company has been public for a year, I can calculate the reward-to-risk ratio. I can look at the alpha. I can study the standard deviation. And I can take four quarters of fundamentals to see if a stock fits my fundamental eight-factor model.

In other words, I can stop guessing. for me Stock grader The tool can give it a simple rating from A to F, which gives me and my followers a clear understanding of whether you should buy it or not.

This is important for SpaceX because it is a complex business. You have a launch job. You have Starlink. And you have other long-term projects that could eventually become very valuable – or not very valuable.

But as an investor, I want to know which part of the business is driving growth. This is one of the main reasons I’m willing to wait. For now, SpaceX’s future as a public company remains a matter of speculation. A year from now, we should have a much clearer picture.

Reason #3: When you buy SpaceX stock, you’re also buying Elon Musk headlines

I would also add the Elon Musk factor.

I’m not here to dispute the man’s genius. Elon Musk helped reinvent the automobile industry. He helped relaunch America’s space ambitions. He built the world’s largest satellite Internet network. He turned around Tesla company (TSLA) to one of the most valuable companies on the planet.

This is an extraordinary record. But investors need to ask a very practical question:

Can you handle the volatility that comes with Elon Musk?

When you invest in a Musk-led company, you’re not just investing in the business. You also accept the market’s reaction to Elon Musk himself.

We’ve seen that with Tesla. A single Musk headline could move billions of dollars in market cap. His political comments, public fights, and unpredictable behavior have created additional volatility around the stock at various times.

This does not erase what Musk has accomplished. But it adds another layer of risk.