Cryptocurrency prediction markets have surpassed $2 billion in bets on the World Cup winner as the tournament opens in Mexico City today, with millions of traders still unable to agree on who will lift the trophy. Spain and France share the lead with about 16%, while defending champion Argentina has only 9%.
The combined total across Polymarket ($1.9 billion) and Kalshi ($132 million) makes this the largest single prediction market event in cryptocurrency history. Polymarket runs 328 live World Cup markets and saw $66 million traded over the past 24 hours, with the total money behind these bets reaching $352.7 million.
Record bets on the World Cup amounted to $2 billion
Polymarket The World Cup winning market opened in July 2025, giving traders nearly a year to assess things before the opening whistle.
Trading volume accelerated as the tournament approached, with $66 million traded in a single 24-hour window. Polymarket combined and everything Total sets a new record for the largest single prediction market event in cryptocurrency history.
Prediction markets have become a staple of every major event in 2025, from the US presidential race to the Super Bowl. The World Cup now represents the biggest test of cryptocurrency betting infrastructure to date.
Spain, France and the defending champion
The 16.5% in Spain and 16.1% in France are close enough to the market It effectively ranks them equally Shared favorites. The percentage of England and Portugal is about 11% each, and Brazil is 8%.
Defending champion Argentina occupies only 9%, less than both European teams in the second division.
The market is not saying Argentina can’t win, but two years after winning the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, crypto bettors no longer rate Argentina as the team to beat. Every result in the group stage will quickly change that reading.
FIFA goes to series
This tournament also represents FIFA’s first official cross-series prediction infrastructure. ADI Predictstreet, the official FIFA partner powered by Chainlink, operates a separate market alongside Polymarket and Kalshi.
World football’s governing body now operates in the same prediction market space built by cryptocurrency traders.
The tournament takes 38 days and 104 matches to settle the $2 billion collective wisdom. The market will not remain at a standstill.
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