SpaceX’s IPO, the largest listing in history, is set to be priced this week, with Alphabet (GOOGL) stock down 12.67% from its record high set on May 18.
The debut turns a decade-old bet worth nearly $100 billion into a number that is updated every trading day. This view is fueling the bullish argument behind Wall Street’s lofty goals, while early-day sellers argue the other side.
SpaceX IPO hype is reaching peak as sellers line up on day one
SpaceX is scheduled to price its offering Thursday evening and begin trading Friday on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The fixed deal of $135 per share targets an upside of $75 billion at a valuation approaching $1.75 trillion.
This makes it the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever. Reported request It approached $150 billion before order bookswhere investors place orders for the stock, is scheduled to close on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, SpaceX reserved 5% of the supply for the direct share program, A segment that was sold to buyers selected by its executives. These buyers bypass the usual post-IPO ban on insider selling and can sell immediately.
In contrast, Elon Musk committed to his roughly 40% stake for 366 days.
Early supporters point to exit as well. Chad Anderson, founder of the investment firm Space Capital and an early investor in SpaceX, He said to luck:
“We have been investing for nearly a decade, and it is our duty to return capital to investors.”
The big winner in this queue is Alphabet itself.
Alphabet’s $900 million bet now stands at $107 billion
Google paid nearly $900 million for its stake in SpaceX in 2015. An Alaska state report published by Bloomberg last April placed
Alphabet’s stake in SpaceX is 6.11% as of late 2025. SpaceX’s February merger with Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI added new shares, likely reducing ownership to about 5%. At the listing price, this range is worth between $87 billion and $100 billion, representing approximately 100 times paper profit.
Investors who wanted SpaceX stock exposure Alphabet has long been used as an alternative and could soon be converted to SPCX directly.
Google also agreed last week to pay SpaceX $920 million per month for AI computing power through June 2029. The deal totals about $30 billion and sits alongside Anthropic’s $1.25 billion monthly contract.
So Alphabet’s money is fueling SpaceX’s revenue either way.
The listing now gives Alphabet a path from paper to cash.
$190 billion AI bill pushes Alphabet toward monetization
Alphabet has targeted 2026 capital expenditures, money spent on data centers and hardware, at up to $190 billion. Operating cash flow, which is cash generated by core businesses, covered $174 billion through March, below planned spending.
June stock package included Sale of $18 billion worth of stock and $16.75 billion of convertible preferred stock. The preferred note is later converted into common stock. It added a $40 billion mark-to-market program, which trickles new shares onto the exchange.
In simple terms, Alphabet plans to spend more this year than its business generates. To cover the difference, you sell new shares. SpaceX’s windfall would bring in money without that cost.
Outstanding shares measure total Traded stocks. The number rose to 12.12 billion this quarter from 12.09 billion at the end of 2025. This is the first rise since at least 2018, and filings warn that stock buybacks may halt during sales.
sale SpaceX stock can be delivered Gap without minting new Alphabet shares. But the timeline is important. SpaceX goes public on June 12, and its first earnings report covers the quarter ending June 30.
This report is likely to be released in late July or August. Under the standard schedule, 20% of the lot is opened on the second trading day thereafter.
This window is equivalent to approximately $18 billion to $21 billion. Of the current owners, a first-day sale can only come from 5% direct stock program buyers.
The rest is released internally 180 days under this schedule, That means December at the earliest. Rate Research Firm Morningstar SpaceX is valued at about $780 billion, about half its listing price.
A $20 billion seller arriving in a stock already called overvalued could push SPCX lower. A decline in the price of SPCX will also reduce the value of Alphabet’s remaining stake.
The influx of institutional money signals an early turn
Alphabet stock has fallen for four straight weeks, with a peak-to-trough decline of 12.67% at its lows. However, it will still be up more than 15% in 2026.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a volume-based proxy for institutional buying and selling pressure, turned negative in early June. The index fell near -0.10 and then rose again to -0.03.
This compares to readings near 0.40 in mid-May, when the gauge indicated heavy institutional buying. A rise towards zero indicates that selling pressure may now subside.
Daily trading volume also faded during the decline, a sign that sellers may be losing steam. A proven monetization plan can give these streams a reason to turn positive.
The options market shows how traders position themselves during the same segment.
Options traders continued to buy calls through the slide
The put-call ratio compares put contracts, which profit from declines, with bullish call contracts. Readings less than 1 mean calls are dominant. GOOGL’s trading volume ratio, which is generated from each session’s trades, was 0.49 on June 9. Since its peak on May 18, it has fluctuated between approximately 0.36 and 0.83.
The open interest ratio, which counts open positions rather than daily trades, is 0.78. This is below the late May area near 0.85, so some traders have removed downside protection.
The dominance of the call, as evidenced by the double-digit decline, suggests that traders expect Alphabet to revalue once SPCX is traded. This logic, called the sum of the parts, evaluates each part of the company separately instead of one mixed number.
Analyst targets and charting turn this position into tangible numbers.
What turns the 13% slice into a $475 story for Alphabet stock
TD Cowen raised its Alphabet target to $475 from $450 this month. The company expects Google’s data center power capacity to increase tenfold by 2031.
The SpaceX IPO Adds the second leg. SPCX Live Quote reprices the share daily, at a value of $7 to $9 per Alphabet share. The minimum takes the 5% diluted stake at $87.5 billion. The cap gets the full 6.11% at $106.9 billion. Through 12.12 billion Alphabet shares, the equivalent of $7.20 to $8.80 per share.
Other targets stay lower but remain bullish. HSBC made the only cut this month to $420 from $435, while maintaining its buy rating. Barclays has $405, UBS has $410 with a contract, Bank of America has $430, and Needham has $450.
Alphabet stock is heading into SpaceX’s debut and is still up more than 15% this year, even after the pullout. Institutional money flow is back on the rise, and options traders continue to favor calls. A $100 billion windfall is now just one decision away.
The May 18 record of $408.99 sits about 12% above the last close. The lowest analyst targets, $405 and $410, are about the same.
So, climbing back above the old record would put the stock inside the target range of $405 to $475. The strong opening for SPCX, along with any sign that Alphabet is planning to sell part of its stake, supports this trajectory.
The risks are equally clear. Day 1 sellers face no restrictions on 5% of the offer. Right now, the $360 floor separates the path to $475 from a slide that hands control to the bears.
this post SpaceX’s IPO could pump $100 billion into Alphabet’s Google stock appeared first on BeInCrypto.
