Given the escalating tensions in the Middle East – including reports of an Iranian drone attack on an Apache helicopter and a subsequent US retaliatory strike – one might have expected crude oil prices to rise. Instead, the price of WTI rose modestly, rising about $1.23 to $89.45, suggesting that traders remain hesitant to price aggressively in the event of a major supply disruption. From a technical perspective, the market is still weak.
On the hourly chart above, the price continues to trade below the converging 100 and 200 hourly moving averages (blue and green lines) between $91.28 and $91.58. If buyers want to regain control, they must push the price above these resistance levels and, more importantly, keep it there. Oil spent most of the month oscillating around those moving averages, but the fact that it currently remains below them keeps the near-term outlook tilted toward the downside.
At the same time, sellers have not yet provided a conclusive technical breakdown. Yesterday’s low found support ahead of the bullish 100-day moving average, which currently sits at $85.97 (blue line on the chart below), while today’s low remains above the 50% retracement of the rise from the December 2025 low to the March 2026 high, which comes in at $87.23. These levels represent important downside targets and support areas. A move below – and continued trading below – both the 50% retracement level and the 100-day moving average would reinforce the bearish case and give sellers tighter control of the market.
For now, despite the geopolitical backdrop, the inability of crude oil to reclaim the 100 and 200 hourly moving averages indicates a modest bearish bias. However, sellers would still like to see a break below the $87.23 retracement level and the bullish 100-day moving average at $85.96 to confirm and extend that hold.
